| Energy conservation can be thought of as an energy resource, similar to coal, hydropower, and other traditional energy sources. The task facing energy planners is to select the least-cost mix of energy resources, including conservation, that will meet energy demand. Conservation is at a disadvantage in this competition for least-cost supply, due to the difficulty in promoting conservation and in predicting the effects of conservation programs. To support the optimal use of conservation, models of conservation choice are often used to both predict and explain conservation behavior.;Models of conservation choice typically assume that consumers make conservation choices so as to minimize life-cycle costs. Considerable research effort has gone into determining the consumer discount rate used to compare present costs with future savings. Empirical evidence has found discount rates to vary widely, which has cast doubt on the cost-minimization assumption.;In this study, an alternative model of conservation choice is presented. In this model, consumers are not assumed to minimize life-cycle costs, and non-financial factors such as time required for installation are included. Five factors are identified as causal influences on conservation choice, and these factors are measured using an original household survey. The resulting model is shown to correctly predict conservation choice in 74.7% of the households. An innovative discrete choice method (CART) is used to show that perceived savings have little predictive power. |
