| The diffusion of particleboard and southern pine plywood is examined in this study. The effects of diffusion on wood requirements are analyzed along with the roles of various factors affecting the diffusion of panel product innovations.; Particleboard wood requirements are projected to increase from 5.4 million tons in 1979 to between 9.3 and 10.5 million tons in 2000. Over the same period, southern pine plywood wood requirements are projected to increase from 4.5 million tons to between 6.8 and 7.7 million tons. The projections are based on (1) an aggregate panel consumption submodel, (2) a logistic function submodel, and (3) average wood requirements per unit of output.; Though aggregate panel consumption is a function of expected economic activity, diffusion of specific panels is based on many interacting factors, many of which are not amenable to quantitative analysis. Among the more important factors are: panel characteristics, building codes and standards, process innovations, economic variables, raw material price and availability, and competition from other wood-based panels.; Two diffusion submodels, the logistic function and the Gompertz curve, are used to estimate potential market shares and growth rates for the panels. However, these models are not useful for explaining the diffusion process. Multivariate models were utilized to provide a partial explanation for this process.; Southern pine plywood's rapid diffusion was enhanced by (1) its similarity to existing low quality softwood plywood, (2) its accepted standardization coinciding with initial production, (3) its low price relative to western softwood plywood, and (4) its regional advantage. The large amount of raw material available for processing promoted the establishment of the southern pine plywood industry. Factors which will eventually slow its diffusion include: (1) almost total reliance on one end-use, sheathing, (2) rising stumpage costs, and (3) competition from new structural panels.; Particleboard's diffusion was aided by its many end-use applications, its declining relative price, and the large amounts of residues available for processing. The slow evolution of standards and particleboard's atypical characteristics initially hindered its diffusion. As new specialized products capture portions of particleboard's end-use markets and as competition for raw materials increases, its market share growth will continue to slow. |
