The economic effects of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade on supply management in Canadian agriculture: Spatial models of the Canadian broiler industry

The subject of supply managed agricultural products in Canada is a topic that has intrigued many economists over the last 20 years. More recently, considerable attention has been paid to the impact of the Uruguay round of negotiations under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) on supply management. With respect to the GATT, most trade economists turned their attention towards the so called "tariffication" issue. However, in most Canadian supply managed industries, the new GATT policy will not (in the near future) have a significant international effect due to the minimum access rule inherent in the two-tiered tariff rate quota rule that will take effect in 1995. It will, however, have a significant impact on the domestic structure of the supply managed industries within Canada as these industries adjust in order to become more competitive under a new international trade regime.;This Dissertation draws upon economic theory related to international trade and industrial organization in order to model the supply managed broiler industry in Canada. Various economic simulation models are developed, within a spatial price equilibrium framework, which predict production levels and inter-provincial trade flows. The spatial approach was used due to the relatively large distances between the Canadian provinces. Included among these economic models is the theoretical development of an integrated spatial oligopoly model and the subsequent empirical application of this model to the Canadian broiler industry.;These different models are used to assess the economic impacts of various structural changes on the Canadian broiler industry. Canadian domestic producer, processor, retail, and consumer sectors are included in the analysis. In addition, import levels from the United States into Canada are endogenized to reflect the new minimum access rule under the Uruguay Round of the GATT agreement. The economic effects on consumers and producers within each province, as well as the welfare of the country as a whole, are explored.