| The theoretical understanding of the dynamics of change and transformation in world politics has been elusive, making questions of predictability a paramount concern. Chaos theory has offered a substantive and meaningful explanatory and research approach of dynamics across many disciplines. While some empirical studies have been conducted analyzing the chaotic nature of some data in international relations, no coherent general explanatory theory or model of why we would see chaotic dynamics in international relations has been offered. A model of two-person and spatio-temporal games using Giddens' structuration theory is presented and analyzed, crossing the levels of analysis necessary to sound world politics theory, and modeling mathematically described chaotic behavior, while simultaneously explaining stability and equilibrium, and rethinking the meaning of prediction in world politics. Cross-disciplinary, theoretically deep cellular automata model-generated data are analyzed using phase space reconstruction of an attractor, spatial correlation test, Fourier power spectrum analysis, a Lyapunov characteristic exponent, and fractal dimension. Implications of such an alternative model of change, order, and prediction in world politics theory is explored, and an application is made to the Reykjavik summit between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev with a summary of possible research applications. |
