De-autocratization and violent outcomes: The role of strategic interaction and information

The question posed in this research is a relatively straight forward question: when will de-autocratization lead to internal conflict. De-autocratization refers to the process by which an authoritarian regime transitions from its current regime type to a less restrictive regime type. As such, the term de-autocratization encompasses the process of liberalization as well as democratization. Many scholars have focused on the process of democratization in an attempt to explain under what conditions democratization will succeed. In doing so, these scholars choose not to explore why democratization may fail. Additionally, research of this nature assumes that authoritarian regimes are interested in democratizing. In reality, many authoritarian regimes are willing to allow some degree of change but are not willing to democratize, at least not initially. The goal of this dissertation is to explore the process of de-autocratization in such a manner as to better understand when the process will lead to failure, specifically internal conflict.; In order to accomplish this goal, a series of game theoretic models are developed. These models focus on the strategic nature of the interaction between various actors. A non-cooperative bargaining game is developed to explore the interaction between regime members. An incomplete and imperfect information model is developed in order to better understand how the regime interacts with civil society. It is vitally important to understand how the different actors interact with each other. It has long been argued that the regime is not a homogeneous collection of individuals but that the regime is composed of individuals with different goals and preferences. Yet the vast majority of the literature makes an implicit assumption that the regime acts as a single unit. If we are to understand how de-autocratization occurs, it is necessary to understand why the regime may choose to liberalize and how that decision is reached. It is equally important to develop a more complete understanding of how the regime interacts with civil society. The model developed in this research allows civil society to choose to demand liberalization even if the regime does not initially choose to open. This is necessary addition to past game theoretic work in the field of democratization as it more accurately represents how the process occurs.; The second half of the research develops an empirical model which explores the different outcomes of de-autocratization and the variables that influence these outcomes. A multi-nomial logit model is developed with the dependent variable broken into five categories: no conflict, coup, political unrest, minor conflict, and civil war. The outcome "no conflict" may include cases where liberalization, or even democratization, is successfully achieved.