An examination of California salmon management: Klamath River populations, ocean fleet dynamics, and advocacy coalitions

Salmon harvest management in California is strongly influenced by the Klamath River fall chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) fisheries because of allocation and conservation constraints. To examine the population responses to different levels of harvest, I created a simulation matrix model to compare outcomes of stochastic and deterministic inputs under various levels of harvest in the river and the ocean. Ocean harvest levels are influenced by the seasons set for different areas along the coast, and by the number of vessels participating. I used logistic regression analyses of commercial fish landings data to compare various explanatory models of when vessels move to new areas and when they exit from the fishery. The management decisions regarding seasons and fishing limits are constrained by the policies set by management institutions, and these in turn are reflections of the policy process. The final piece of the harvest management I analyzed was the policy processes to see how advocacy coalitions succeeded in obtaining changes beneficial to their interests in the harvest arena. My findings demonstrate that harvest regimes risk populations declining to levels defined as overfished under the Magnuson-Stevens Act, when early life history stages included stochasticity and density dependence. Results from analysis of the ocean commercial harvest showed that for all management areas, vessels are more likely to exit after a year of lower landings. Over 80% of vessels landed fewer than 7000 pounds annually. On the other hand, vessels are more likely to move to fish in a new area the year following large landings. Since vessels more likely to move land a larger overall share, they create uncertainty for the season setting process regarding the location of effort. Finally, in analyzing the influence of coalitions on the policy process, I found evidence that coalitions shifted policy roles with changes in the fishery, with some gaining opportunities to influence the policies affecting harvest availability and conservation decisions. The coalitions' influence extends from the immediate annual harvest regulatory regime to long range policies for conservation and water issues.