Development and application of a model for the analysis of trades between space launch system operations and acquisition costs

Early design decisions in the development of space launch systems determine the costs to acquire and operate launch systems. Some sources indicate that as much as 90% of life cycle costs are fixed by the end of the critical design review phase. System characteristics determined by these early decisions are major factors in the acquisition cost of flight hardware elements and facilities and influence operations costs through the amount of maintenance and support labor required to sustain system function. Operations costs are also dependent on post-development management decisions regarding how much labor will be deployed to meet requirements of market demand and ownership profit. The ability to perform early trade-offs between these costs is vital to the development of systems that have the necessary capacity to provide service and are profitable to operate.; An Excel-based prototype model was developed for making early analyses of trade-offs between the costs to operate a space launch system and to acquire the necessary assets to meet a given set of operational requirements. The model, integrating input from existing models and adding missing capability, allows the user to make such trade-offs across a range of operations concepts (required flight rates, staffing levels, shifts per workday, workdays per week and per year, unreliability, wearout and depot maintenance) and the number, type and capability of assets (flight hardware elements, processing and supporting facilities and infrastructure). The costs and capabilities of hypothetical launch systems can be modeled as a function of interrelated turnaround times and labor resource levels, and asset loss and retirement. The number of flight components and facilities required can be calculated and the operations and acquisition costs compared for a specified scenario.; Findings, based on the analysis of a hypothetical two stage to orbit, reusable, unmanned launch system, indicate that the model is suitable for the trade-off analyses desired. The minimum turnaround time/maximum labor allocation for specific hardware configurations and characteristics and corresponding asset requirements can be estimated. Either turnaround time or resources can be varied and the resulting operations and acquisition costs can be compared. Asset reliability, wearout and depot maintenance intervals and durations can be varied as well to analyze the effects on costs. Likewise, the effects on operations and acquisitions costs of the introduction of alternative technologies that affect reliability, maintainability and supportability in various hardware configurations can be evaluated.