Spatial indeterminacy and power sector carbon emissions accounting

Carbon emission indicators are essential for understanding climate change processes, and for motivating and measuring the effectiveness of carbon reduction policy at multiple scales. Carbon indicators also play an increasingly important role in shaping cultural discourses and politics about nature-society relations and the roles of the state, markets and civil society in creating sustainable natural resource practices and just societies. The analytical and political significance of indicators is tied closely to their objective basis: how accurately they account for the places, people, and processes responsible for emissions. In the electric power sector, however, power-trading across geographic boundaries prevents a simple, purely objective spatial attribution of emissions. Using U.S. states as the unit of analysis, three alternative methods of accounting for carbon emissions from electricity use are assessed, each of which is conceptually sound and methodologically rigorous, yet produces radically different estimates of individual state emissions. Each method also implicitly embodies distinctly different incentive structures for states to enact carbon reduction policies. Because none of the three methods can be said to more accurately reflect "true" emissions levels, I argue the best method is that which most encourages states to reduce emissions. Energy and carbon policy processes are highly contested, however, and thus I examine competing interests and perspectives shaping state energy policy. I explore what it means, philosophically and politically, to predicate emissions estimates on both objectively verifiable past experience and subjectively debatable policy prescriptions for the future. Although developed here at the state scale, the issues engaged and the carbon accounting methodology proposed are directly relevant to carbon analysis and policy formation at scales ranging from the local to the international.