| In this research, I investigate the relationship between short-term climate variability and the fire ecology of the Uluguru Nature Forest Reserve (UNFR). I investigate the influence of relief, altitude, the Indian Ocean Dipole or Dipole Mode Index (DMI), and Nino 3.4 on short (November--December) and long rains (March, April, May) in the UNFR. Fire events correlate weakly with amount of annual local rainfall, suggesting that fire occurrence in the UNFR results from a combination of factors, such as rainfall anomalies, topography, type of vegetation (fuel), timing and use of fire by local people as a farm preparation tool, and teleconnections. A thorough understanding of fire behavior across time and space is necessary to design a successful UNFR management plan; the resulting plan must address both anthropogenic and climatic drivers of fire. |
