Research On The Risks Of The Online Lending Industry

As an important part of financial innovation,network lending effectively makes up for the lack of supply of traditional financial services in China,and obtains a high-speed development space,but the risks are also constantly superimposed,and eventually lead to the outbreak of problems.In 2018,the centralized payment crisis led to the formal filing and investigation of multiple lending platforms by the public security organs,which severely hit market confidence.In 2019,the regulatory authorities strengthened the supervision of the online lending industry.After rectification,filing and inspection,the infrastructure construction and standard system construction are becoming more and more mature,and the development planning and industry standards are advancing steadily,entering a new stage.This paper summarizes the current situation and problems of the Internet lending industry at the time of major changes.It is necessary to use structural equation model to model the risk generation mechanism of the whole Internet lending industry and summarize the risk characteristics and risk generation mechanism of the Internet lending industry.In recent years,the stock of online lending platforms has declined significantly,the trading volume of platforms has continued to decrease,and the yield of platform products has declined.On the one hand,the industry supervision is not up-to-date,which is reflected in the imperfect supervision of capital deposit,the imperfect details of platform filing and the unsystematic degree of industry regulation.On the other hand,the fundamental reason is that the online lending platform itself is an information intermediary,but in order to pursue profits,it operates credit intermediary business illegally.Moreover,due to the Internet foundation and multi-party participation,the online lending has the characteristics of strong superposition and multi-dimensional complexity of risk,which makes the accumulation speed and intensity of online lending risk far exceed the traditional financial lending.From the object of risk impact,the object of risk impact of online lending is mostly small and micro enterprises and individuals,with weak risk bearing capacity.From the perspective of the whole network lending industry,this paper analyzes the risk generation mechanism of the network lending industry as a credit intermediary,clarifies the transmission path of the risk caused by the impact of the macro-economic environment,financial market environment and the industry itself on the network lending industry,constructs the index system of the risk generation mechanism,and uses the structural equation model to model and analyze the risk transmission path.Based on the principle of simplification,this paper ignores the individual intermediary variables,studies the subject of risk origin,and finds that the impact of macro-economic environment on the online lending industry is the biggest incentive for the fluctuation of the online lending industry.Small and micro enterprises are the main customers of the network lending industry.The survival of small and micro enterprises is greatly affected by the macro-economic environment,so the survival of small and micro enterprises will cause a fatal blow to the network lending industry.This paper achieves the following innovations: first,it broadens the research perspective of online lending supervision.The existing research literature mainly focuses on a single regulatory system discussion or a single case analysis,lack of research and analysis ideas combined with the characteristics of online lending with a macro industry perspective.In this paper,the research perspective will jump out of the case study of a single online lending institution and the internal study of the online lending industry.The online lending industry will be discussed in the context of the macro-economic operation of the whole society.Combined with the macro-economic environment,financial market environment and other relevant factors,this paper attempts to understand the source and generation mechanism of the risk of the online lending industry,and expand the network The scope and depth of the supervision of online lending industry.Secondly,it analyzes the source and evolution mechanism of credit risk and liquidity risk of online lending institutions,and uses the actual data to verify,introduces the framework of traditional financial risk management into the risk analysis of online lending industry,and analyzes on the basis of mature theory,so as to provide a mature path for the establishment of risk supervision mechanism.Thirdly,this paper uses structural equation model to describe the formation mechanism of the risk of the Internet lending industry.Compared with ordinary regression model or time series model,structural equation is suitable for model structure with latent variables and more complex correlation.Because this paper studies the network lending industry under the whole social and economic operation system,involving more than one field,the correlation and causality between various fields are complex,and there is no single index to describe a field completely,so the introduction of structural equation model is particularly appropriate,which opens up a new idea for the risk analysis of the network lending industry Road.Fourth,most of the theoretical analysis of this paper is supported by data,and verified by statistical methods,which makes the analysis of the online lending industry not only stay at the theoretical level,but also implement the actual data evidence.Moreover,the data analysis results of this paper can modify the conclusions of theoretical analysis,so that the theory and practice can be truly in-depth integration,mutual guidance.From the method level,it enriches the research methods and analysis ideas of the risk supervision of the online lending industry,and expands the corresponding theoretical system.