Research On Credit Risk Transmission And Prevention Countermeasures Of P2P Network Lending Based On Ecological Circle Perspective

With the development of modern information technology represented by the Internet,the Internet financial model has become an emerging financing model.P2 P network lending is a typical representative of the Internet financial model.With the rapid development of Internet technology,it has broken the monopoly position of traditional commercial banks in private lending,and has gradually developed into an important way for credit lending transactions between individuals and individuals or small and micro enterprises.P2P network lending transactions rely on the Internet platform.The transaction process is not as transparent as traditional bank lending,and the transaction information involved cannot be fully disclosed.As a result,investors are in a weak position in P2 P network lending and face high credit risk.Although the state has taken measures to prevent credit risks,the imperfect regulatory system and the lack of risk prevention mechanisms have led to credit risk events that cannot be avoided.In order to reduce the credit risk caused by information asymmetry and reduce the loss of investors,it is of great practical significance to study the generation,evolution,transmission and prevention of P2 P network credit risk.From the perspective of ecological circle,based on the analysis of China’s P2 P network lending model,operation mechanism and credit structure,this paper firstly clarifies the credit chain among related entities,and explains the meaning,element structure and ecological characteristics and ecology of P2 P network lending ecosystem,the circle operation mechanism and the balance and adjustment in the P2 P network lending ecosystem,and then portray the P2 P network lending ecosystem in China.Secondly,by constructing a three-party pure strategy game model of borrowers,investors and platforms,this paper points out the endogenous incentives,environment and links of credit risk,and then explains the endogenous mechanism of credit risk in the P2 P network lending ecosystem.With the incomplete information dynamic game model,the evolution of credit risk in the P2 P network lending ecosystem is analyzed,and the three stages of credit risk evolution are pointed out: the accumulation of credit risk,the diffusion of credit risk,and the conversion of credit risk.Thirdly,the factor analysis method is used to explain the endogenous factors of credit risk in the P2 P network lending ecosystem,and the 16 credit risk variables of the borrowers are reduced to 6 credit risk indicators.By constructing the P2 P network credit risktransmission path map,it is pointed out that the transmission process of credit risk in the online lending ecosystem mainly includes the transmission of credit risk in the P2 P network lending industry and the spillover of credit risk in the P2 P network lending industry,further expounding the transmission of credit risk in the P2 P network lending ecosystem.Finally,with reference to the theoretical and empirical results,nine countermeasures are proposed from the perspective of the important nodes,generation and transmission of credit risk in the P2 P network lending ecosystem,in order to comprehensively promote the healthy,orderly and compliance development of China’s P2 P network lending industry.