Research On Influence Factors And Paths Of Credit Risk Of P2P Online Lending Based On Structural Equation Model

P2P(peer-to-peer online lending)platform has already gone through 10 years in China.As an innovative product of internet finance development,it is favored by the majority of SMEs and low-income people because of its low investment,financing,convenience,and direct transparency.In just 10 years,China's P2 P online lending platform has experienced rapid development.In 2017,the cumulative number of platforms reached 5,970,and the accumulated turnover of the industry reached62,339.41 billion yuan.However,with the rapid development of online loan platforms,risk events such as difficulties in bank withdrawal,bankruptcy,and trespasses have occurred frequently,and credit risks have become prominent.This has become one of the major risks facing the P2 P online lending industry.The paper studies the credit risk of P2 P online lending from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.Based on the description of related concepts of P2 P online lending and its development in China,the credit risk is studied from the theoretical perspective.Put the five major creditors,namely investors,borrowers,platforms,guarantee agencies and custodians,in the credit chain system to analyze their credit relationships,and build a game model to analyze the formation mechanism of credit risk.There are three main reasons for credit risk: First,the imperfect credit system leads to adverse selection beforehand;second,lack of effective supervision leads to moral hazard in the event;and third,lack of effective constraints leads to post-mortem moral hazard.The borrower's production and business operations suddenly failed or the investment failed.There was a major mistake in the operation of the platform,and there were serious problems in the risk control systems of guarantee agencies and depository agencies.The panic in the P2 P online lending market caused by changes in the macroeconomic environment was the trigger for credit risk outbreaks.The unexpected events inside and outside the credit chain led to the detonation of risk factors.The credit risk was spread along the transmission path through talents,funds,information,and other carriers to all risk nodes in the P2 P online lending credit chain.Credit risk is either mediated or further amplified at each risk node,accelerating the diffusion process,and the various credit entities that are linked to the externalenvironment within the credit chain are conducted outside the credit chain,triggering a greater credit crisis.Based on the construction of P2 P credit risk evaluation index system and structural equation model,this paper studies the credit risk from the empirical perspective.The borrower factor is used as the main indicator for constructing a P2 P online lending credit risk evaluation system.Through the exploratory factor analysis of the default data of the loan for everyone,a comprehensive evaluation index system composed of 3 evaluation main factors and12 evaluation indicators was constructed.Based on this,the impact of the structural equation model on the credit risk of P2 P online lending was constructed.Path expansion analysis.Select age,income,working years,real estate conditions,and car production as observation variables of latent variable experience and economic ability,select the credit variable,total amount of the subject,principal and interest to be repaid,bad debt amount,and loan period as observation variables of the underlying characteristics of the potential variable,select overdue The number of times and accumulated overdue amounts are taken as the observed variable of the latent variable credit risk.The result of the structural equation model shows that the borrower's experience and economic ability and the characteristics of the target have a significant impact on credit risk.Based on theoretical research and empirical research,this paper discusses the countermeasures against credit risk prevention from the platform itself and the external environment.