| Modern agriculture is the way that agricultural development must take,and marketization is one of the main characteristics of modern agriculture.With the development of modern agriculture,the degree of marketization of rural economy has been continuously improved,and this process will inevitably bring the frequent fluctuations in agricultural prices.Compared to the noncommercial field crops favored by government policy,commercial field crops have experienced a series of great price fluctuations in recent years.Commercial field crops are fully commoditized and their prices are entirely determined by the market.Therefore,the price formation and production of them are in line with the market mechanism.Under the encouragement of farmers' pursuit for maximization of profits,the price change of commercial field crops will impact the household production decision-making behavior.Therefore,based on dynamic cobweb and asymmetrical perspective,this paper takes peanuts as an example on behalf of the commercial field crops to discuss the mechanism of price fluctuation,and on this basis,studies the influence of peanut price change on peanut production decision-making behavior to summarize the regularities and reason of peanut price change and the characteristics of farmers' production decision-making behavior,which can provide relevant policy suggestions for stabilizing peanut price fluctuation and guaranteeing the income stability of peanut growers,and provide relevant theoretical and empirical reference for national macro-control peanut acreage.In the arrangement of the text,this paper first proposed a dynamic cobweb model to explain the regularity and mechanisms of peanut price fluctuations.The study found:Peanut price fluctuation is similar to that of other commercial field crop,showing a great fluctuation and multi-cycle spider web phenomenon.The fluctuation of peanut price is mainly due to the joint influence of external impact and the price of cobweb;the shock of part of the exogenous variables may have an impact on supply;the shock of another part of the exogenous variable may have an impact on demand;it is because external shocks lead to the movement of the supply curve and the demand curve,which are regulated by the market mechanism,peanut price fluctuation is formed under the guidance of price cobweb.The external shock will make peanut price gradually deviate from initial equilibrium price.While the external shock disappears,the peanut price gradually converges to the initial equilibrium price.The procedure happens over and over again,the peanut price fluctuations form,showing a multi-cycle spider web phenomenon.In all exogenous variables,the role of natural disasters is more obvious,because persistent drought lead to a substantial reduction in peanuts,and further brings prices soaring.Then,this paper focuses on the impact of price changes on farmers' decision-making behavior.This part is the focus of this paper,and in layers of progressive way,brings the emphasis on the element input when study the peanut farmers production decision-making behavior,and then further focus on the planting acreage most affected by the price.Specifically:First,the descriptive statistical method is used to mainly describe the characteristics of peanut farmers' decision-making behavior under the background of price change.The study found that while farmers' interest in market price information is increasing,and farmers' access to market price information is becoming more abundant,the farmers'expectation ability of price is still very low.Only 50%of farmers can accurately expect rise or fall of peanut price.In addition,the farmers will generally base on the previous peanut price to expect price of current production,the price changes will have an impact on the decision-making behavior of farmers,and thus peanut price changes will affect peanut farmers' production decision-making behavior with element input the most influential factor.Secondly,on the basis of the conclusion of the first step,this part analyzes the influence of price change on the farmer's element input from the theoretical and empirical levels.The study found that:the most affected factor by price change is the land with its supply elasticity 0.381,significantly higher than labor,machinery and fertilizer and other elements of the supply elasticity.And the adjustment of the element input behavior caused by price change will also have an impact on the farmers' planting income,of which is affected most by the change of the acreage.Thirdly,because the second step of the study concluded that price changes have the greatest impact on farmers' acreage,and farmers are more likely to adjust the area when dealing with price changes,this section focuses on the impact of price changes on the acreage,including the influential difference of price change on the farmers' planting area of different operation scale and the effect of price change under different constraints on the adjustment of acreage.The results show that:(1)the effect of price changes on the farmer's acreage is related to the scale of operation,and the relationship is "U" type,that is,with the expansion of the scale of operation,the impact of price change on peanut acreage declines.The effect of price changes on peanut acreage can be expressed by the supply elasticity of the acreage to peanut price,the lower supply elasticity of the small-scale farmers' planting area to price is mainly due to the low level of commercialization,and for large-scale farmers,it is mainly due to the larger adjustment cost brought by the high proportion of peanut acreage and smaller adjustment space.For only medium-sized farmers,there is enough commercialization level and no adjustment restrictions due to a large proportion of peanut planting area.Therefore,medium-sized farmers' adjustment of planting area is greater when the price changes.(2)The area adjustment behavior of peanut farmers for price change is also restricted by different constraints,including land specialization,contract system and credit constraint,among which land specialization and contract system restrict the effect of the price decrease on the planting area decline and the credit constraint restricts the effect of the price increase on the planting area.It is because of the different constraints,which limits the area adjustment behavior of the farmers,there are still many farmers who maintain the existing planting area for the price change.Based on above results,the paper makes the relevant policy recommendations in the concrete measures to strengthen the agricultural market information,to increase the farmers' ability to accurately predict the market price information,to strengthen the meteorological disaster resistance,to further stabilize the peanut price fluctuation and to get rid of the constraints restricting the farmer's planting area adjustment behavior and in how to encourage the scale operation to stabilize the supply of peanuts and other aspects. |
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