Research On The Current Situation And Future Trend Of Mutton Supply And Demand In China

In recent years, as people’s income level rises and lifestyle changes, mutton consumption market developed rapidly in china, the characteristics of health and nutrition of mutton has been widely accepted, consumption quantity of mutton has increased steadily.But in contrast, the mutton production is exceptionally traditional and backward,the breeding method still is extensive, the scale still is small,the industrialization process still is slow,and the industry is increasingly contrained by resource and environment,the mutton market has appeared tight balance. With the tight balance appearing and continuing, mutton price rised rapidly in recent years which has got the top of the popular meat price of pork, beaf and chicken,and the high price has affected people’s mutton consumption,especially people with low income and those in the frontier and minority areas.At the same time, mutton import is increasing, mutton export is decreasing,and the trade deficit is becoming wider, however, mutton production in Australia and New Zealand has appeared downward trend.So china’s mutton market is facing challenges.In this condition,it is urgent to make research on the current situation and the future trend of the mutton market in china,to accelerate the process of mutton industrzation,improve the development of mutton consumption market, and insure the balance of mutton supply and demand.Within the framerwork of partial balance theory,the paper comprehensively use investigation method, comparative analysis method, statistical analysis method and quantitative analysis method.Firstly,the paper analyzes the current situation of mutton production,mutton consumption and mutton import and export of china. As to mutton production,the paper analyzes meat sheep stock and mutton production,the regional distribution and change,the scale process and the productivity income,the technical efficiency of meat sheep industry.As to mutton consumption,the paper analyzes the consumption quantity, the consumer behavior and the affect factors,the consumption trend in the future.As to mutton import and export,the paper summarizes the mutton production and trade all over the world, analyzes the quantity and structure of china’s mutton import and export,research the integration relation between the domestic mutton market and internal mutton market.Secondly,the paper constructs the partial balance model of mutton supply and demand based on the partial balance theory on the whole country level,and make forcast on the mutton market in2012-2025.At last, considering the change of the exogenous factors that can affect the mutton market,the paper make scenario simulations with supposing income level,scale level,carcass weight,change rate and population scale change,to make more sufficient learning of china mutton market in the future.The main conclusions are:①In recent years,china’s mutton industry developed steadily,the scale level increased,and the process of industrialization has been improved.②Mutton consumption has increased,and Chinese residents has strong consumption willingness in the future.③The production of mutton in the world increased year by year,and appears the trend of transfer and concentration to Asia and Africa,and there exists long-term contegraton relationship and short-term fluctuations correction mechanism between Chinese mutton market and world mutton market.④From2012to2025,the production and consumption of mutton will keep increasing,the situation of tight balance will go on, the mutton price will rise still, the trade deficit will be wider, the major issue to china’s mutton market will be how to develop mutton production and how to insure the balance of supply and demand.⑤Under the scenario of income level rising,scale process developing,carcass weight rising, RMB appreciation and population increasing, china’s mutton market supply and demand will present different running condition in the future.At last,in order to develop meat sheep production and insure the balance of mutton supply and demand, the paper put forwards the policies from the aspects of mutton production,mutton consumption and mutton import and export respectively.