| During the post-financial-crisis era,how to deal with the pressure of domestic economic downturn and foreign trade protection,to maintain sustained and stable economic growth has become an urgent theoretical and practical problem to be solved.This paper tries to provide a reference for the solution of this problem from the perspective of the new urbanization.As Stiglitz,a Nobel laureate in economics,puts it:China's urbanization and American high-tech are the decisive forces of the 21st century.He believes that China's urbanization will become the engine of regional economic growth,which can produce a huge economic growth effect.Unfortunately,China's traditional urbanization development model has encountered many difficulties at the beginning of the 21st century.In order to cope with these difficulties,a new urbanization strategy came into being.So will the new urbanization really have a huge economic growth effect,as Stiglitz puts it?If so,how does this effect come about?Based on the analysis of the theoretical basis of urbanization and the realistic dilemma,this paper will make a systematic analysis of the economic growth effect of China's new urbanization and its specific mechanism,which will promote the research in this field and provide scientific basis for the formulation and implementation of relevant policies.In this paper,the indicator system to measure the development level of new urbanization is constructed from four aspects,such as economic foundation,population development,social function and environmental quality,and the new urbanization development level between provinces from 2003 to 2017 is measured by the entropy method.The results show that the development level of the new urbanization has significant differences between time and space.Specifically,although Beijing and Shanghai have the highest development level,yet its growth rate is the slowest,and Guangdong's new urbanization not only has high level of development,but also the rapid speed.Although the development level of Chongqing and Shaanxi's new urbanization is not high,it has a relatively fast development rate and therefore has great potential for development.At the same time,by region,the development level of the new urbanization in the eastern region is significantly higher than that of the central and western regions,but its development rate shows a greater dynamic heterogeneity,and during the period 2003-2008,due to the central region benefiting from the country's"central rise" strategy,Therefore,the development speed of its new urbanization is not only higher than the national average,but also significantly higher than that of the eastern and western regions.After 2008,especially after 2011,the new urbanization in the eastern region began to accelerate again and lead the country,which is closely related to its strong economic base and high innovation ability.In addition,it should be noted that due to the new urbanization strategy becoming more obvious and the economic growth rate is slowing down,the development speed of new urbanization in all provinces and regions of China shows the trend of reverse U-type to different degrees.On this basis,this paper analyzes the impact of new urbanization on economic growth and its specific mechanism from both theoretical and empirical aspects.The results of theoretical analysis show that the new urbanization can promote the overall economic growth through four mechanisms:consumption change,industrial structure upgrading,urban-rural income gap narrowing and public service supply increasing.However,there are significant differences in its specific path of action.The increase of consumption will directly promote economic growth,and the influence of industrial structure optimization,urban-rural income gap reduction and public service supply increase on economic growth may be nonlinear.But no matter which mechanism,the new urbanization can promote the economic growth in theory.The results of further time series model and panel data model verify the theoretical proposition.On the one hand,new urbanization and economic growth is Granger cause to each other,and the impact of new urbanization on economic growth is greater than that of economic growth on new urbanization.The new urbanization that lags behind for one period and four periods can significantly promote growth,while the impact of economic growth that lags behind for the latter period on new urbanization is not significant.On the other hand,the panel data shows that the new urbanization is indeed an important cause of economic growth,and this positive role has significant temporal and spatial differences.Specifically,the new urbanization plays the most important role in promoting economic growth in the eastern region,followed by the central region,and the western region.At the same time,with the passage of time,the impact of new urbanization on economic growth shows an inverted U-shaped trend of first rising and then falling.It should be noted that there is a significant difference between the discussion of consumption driven mechanism and the other three mechanisms.As for the consumption driven mechanism,because the relationship between it and economic growth is obvious,we will focus on how the new urbanization drives consumption growth.For the other three mechanisms,on the one hand,we regard it as an important performance of new urbanization to improve the quality of economic growth,and put it into the economic growth effect of new urbanization,that is,by analyzing the impact of new urbanization on industrial structure upgrading,urban-rural integration development and public service supply,to explore the role of new urbanization in improving the quality of economic growth;On the other hand,it is regarded as the channel of new urbanization for economic growth,and its specific mechanism is tested,that is,the impact of industrial structure upgrading,urban-rural integration development and public service supply on the relationship between new urbanization and economic growth is discussed.Based on this,this paper systematically analyzes the four mechanisms of new urbanization affecting economic growth,which is also the main innovation of this paper.The first is the consumption driven mechanism of new urbanization affecting economic growth.We mainly analyze it from three perspectives:income change channel,leading demonstration channel and public expenditure channel.Specifically:(1)the analysis of time series data at the national level shows that a stable VAR model system is formed between the new urbanization and urban residents' consumption,in which the new urbanization is the Granger cause of urban residents' consumption.It can not only directly drive consumption growth,but also indirectly drive consumption growth of urban residents through income change channels.For the channel of income change,it can influence consumption through income effect,wealth effect and distribution effect.Empirical research shows that the new urbanization mainly indirectly promotes the growth of urban consumption through income effect,followed by wealth indirect effect,direct effect and distribution indirect effect.(2)Besides promoting the consumption of urban residents,the new urbanization can further promote the consumption growth of rural residents by leading the demonstration channels.Empirical research shows that the consumption of clothing,household equipment and services,and health care can significantly increase the corresponding expenditure of rural residents.Therefore,the new urbanization can lead and drive the consumption expenditure of rural residents by promoting the increase of these consumption expenditure,and then drive the growth of overall consumption.(3)New urbanization can also affect residents' consumption through public expenditure channels.Empirical analysis shows that the increase of government public expenditure can significantly promote the consumption of urban and rural residents.More importantly,there is a complementary relationship between the new urbanization and public expenditure,that is,the improvement of the degree of new urbanization can further improve the"crowding in effect" of public expenditure on Residents' consumption.However,there is no complementary relationship between the new urbanization and the financial support for agriculture fund,and compared with the financial support for agriculture fund,the improvement of public expenditure for rural residents' consumption "crowding in effect" is more obvious,and the complementary relationship between the new urbanization and public expenditure is more significant.Therefore,it is not the most effective way to stimulate the consumption of rural residents to increase the financial support for agriculture.Secondly,the new urbanization affects economic growth through industrial structure upgrading mechanism.On one hand,the new urbanization can effectively promote the upgrading of industrial structure,on the other hand,the upgrading of industrial structure is an important driving force for sustained economic growth.Therefore,in theory,the new urbanization will have an important impact on economic growth through the upgrading of industrial structure.Empirical research shows that during the sample period,China's industrial structure upgrading index has an obvious upward trend.Although the relationship between new urbanization and industrial structure upgrading is Granger causality,the impact of new urbanization on industrial structure upgrading is more significant.At the same time,for the panel data of all 28 provincial administrative regions,due to the impact of industrial structure upgrading,the role of new urbanization in promoting economic growth shows typical non-linear characteristics.When the industrial structure upgrading index is at a low level,the impact of new urbanization on economic growth is significantly positive,but its degree is small,with the industrial structure upgrading,the impact of new urbanization on economic growth begins to increase.When the upgrading index of industrial structure reaches a certain degree,the impact of new urbanization on economic growth will further increase.However,the non-linear impact has significant regional differences.For the central and western regions,the upgrading index of industrial structure is significantly smaller than that of the eastern region,so the threshold effect of industrial structure upgrading on the relationship between new urbanization and economic growth does not exist in the central and western regions.Although this threshold effect exists in the eastern region,and with the increase of the threshold value,the impact of new urbanization on economic growth has changed from not significant to significant,and its impact degree also shows the characteristics of gradient increase,but compared with the overall sample,the threshold value of this threshold effect is higher and the impact degree is smaller.Further research shows that,for the central and western regions,although the threshold effect of industrial structure upgrading does not exist,there is complementary effect between industrial structure upgrading and new urbanization.The combination of the two can better promote regional economic growth.To sum up,the upgrading of industrial structure is indeed an important mechanism for new urbanization to affect economic growth,but compared with the consumption driven mechanism,its influence path has significant nonlinear characteristics.Thirdly,the new urbanization affects growth through urban-rural co-development mechanism.By building a Theil index to measure the income gap between urban and rural areas,we find that the Theil index has shown a continuous downward trend,which means that the level of urban-rural co-development is rising.At the same time,from the regional perspective,the eastern region has the highest level of urban-rural co-development,followed by the central region,both of which are higher than the national level,while the western region has the largest urban-rural gap and the lowest level of urban-rural co-development.In addition,Shanghai,Beijing,Tianjin and other municipalities directly under the central government have the highest level of urban-rural co-development,while Guizhou,Shaanxi and Gansu in the western region have the lowest level.Although the co-development of urban and rural areas is the proper meaning of new urbanization,we still know little about how the new urbanization affecting co-development of urban and rural areas.Our research finds that the new urbanization does have a positive role in promoting the co-development of urban and rural areas,but for the different quantiles of co-development level,there are important differences in the impact of the new urbanization.For the whole country,the central and western regions,with the improvement of the co-development level,the new urbanization has a stronger role in promoting it,but For the eastern region,with the improvement of co-development level,the role of new urbanization is decreasing.Compared with the eastern region and the whole country,the influence of the central and western regions is more obvious.Further research finds that the new urbanization has an inverted U-shaped impact on the overall development of urban and rural areas,that is,with the development of the new urbanization,its impact on the overall development of urban and rural areas shows a trend of first rising and then declining.On the basis of the above research,we further analyze the relationship between new urbanization,urban-rural integrated development and economic growth.It is found that the improvement of urban and rural co-development level is not conducive to the improvement of economic growth rate,but due to the complementary role of new urbanization,this adverse role is restrained to a certain extent.Further research shows that the relationship between new urbanization and economic growth has a threshold effect.When the level of urban-rural co-development is lower than a certain level,that is,the Theil index is higher than a certain level,the role of new urbanization in promoting economic growth is more significant.When the level of urban-rural co-development exceeds the threshold,that is,the Theil index is lower than the threshold,The role of new urbanization in promoting economic growth is relatively declining,which also means that the role of new urbanization in promoting economic growth is limited,which is consistent with the inverted U-shaped relationship between new urbanization and economic growth in the overall analysis above.Finally,the new urbanization affects growth through public service supply mechanism.Just like industrial structure upgrading and urban-rural integration development,public service supply is not only an important performance of new urbanization to improve the quality of economic growth,but also the core mechanism of its impact on economic growth.First of all,we analyzed the supply of public education services,public transportation services,public medical services and public environmental services in China during 2003-2017 by four indicators:national financial education funds,highway mileage,number of beds in medical institutions and urban green area.It is found that the growth rate of public service supply in China gradually tends to be stable after 2013,and the growth rate of national financial education funds is the fastest,and the growth rate of highway mileage is the slowest.At the same time,there are also significant heterogeneity in the supply of public services between regions in China.From the perspective of supply scale,the eastern region is the highest and the central and western regions are relatively low,but from the perspective of growth rate,the western region is the highest,the central region is the second,and the eastern region is the lowest,which also reflects the balanced development strategy of the government in the supply of public services to a certain extent.On this basis,we futher analyze the relationship between the new urbanization and the supply of public services,and find that the new urbanization and the supply of public education services and public transport services are Granger reasons for each other.At the same time,the new urbanization is the Granger cause of the public medical service supply,but the public medical service supply is not the Granger cause of the new urbanization.In addition,the new urbanization and the supply of public environmental services can not form a stable VAR model system,so it can not test the Granger causality between the two sides.Then,we analyze the specific mechanism of the relationship between new urbanization and economic growth.It is found that there is an alternative relationship between new urbanization and public service supply in promoting economic growth,that is,the improvement of public service supply will weaken the role of new urbanization in promoting economic growth to a certain extent.However,it should be noted that the impact of new urbanization on economic growth is not linear.When the supply level of public services is low,the impact of new urbanization on economic growth is not significant.Only when the supply of public services reaches a certain level,the new urbanization can significantly promote economic growth,and with the further improvement of the supply of public services,the impact of the new urbanization on economic growth will also expand.Therefore,on the one hand,the improvement of public service supply level will relatively weaken the positive impact of new urbanization on economic growth,but with the further improvement of public service supply level,it will improve the role of new urbanization in promoting economic growth from the absolute level,so that the overall impact of new urbanization on economic growth shows a significant positive effect. |
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