Research On The Influence Of External Impact On China's Grain Price Fluctuation

The report of the 19 th National Congress clearly stated: “Ensuring food security and keeping the Chinese people's jobs in their hands.” As a special commodity,food plays a vital role in the economic and social development of a country.Food security is An important part of the national security strategy.In the context of economic globalization,China's grain market is not only affected by domestic factors,but also by other countries in the world.With the further advancement of the globalization process,China's grain market is facing more and more external shocks,and the uncertainty of food price fluctuations is growing.When domestic and foreign scholars analyze the relationship between external shocks and food prices,the choice of indicators for external shocks mainly focuses on four aspects: international food prices,international oil prices,foreign monetary policies,and exchange rates.Among these four factors,It is also more focused on analyzing the impact of international food prices and international oil prices,and has less analysis of the impact of foreign monetary policy and exchange rate shocks.In order to more comprehensively analyze the impact of external shocks on China's grain prices,this paper divides the external shocks currently facing China into demand-driven shocks,cost-driven shocks and international currency shocks.Theoretical research shows that these three external shocks can have an impact on China's grain prices,but due to the current situation of China's grain marketization,the degree of influence of the three is different.In order to further explore the impact of external shocks on China's food price volatility,the paper selected 219 indicators,using monthly data from January 2002 to December 2017,using the FAVAR model for empirical testing.The results show that external shocks have an important impact on China's food price changes,but different types of external shocks have different effects on food price changes,and the impact of the same type of external shock on different types of food prices is also different.The specific performance is as follows: First,in general,in the external shocks of demand,cost promotion and international currency,the cost-driven variables represented by international commodity prices have the greatest impact on food price changes,followed by international The currency shock,the demand-driven variable represented by the quantity of product exports,has the least impact on food price changes.Second,soybean prices are most affected by external shocks,followed by corn,which is relatively less affected by external shocks.Based on the results of theoretical and empirical research,combined with the development of China's macroeconomic and food markets,in order to cope with external shocks,slow food price volatility and maintain food security,this paper proposes the following policy recommendations: actively respond to international commodity price shocks,adopt flexible and effective Monetary policy,improve the foreign trade structure of grain,and ensure the effective supply and quality of food.