| As economic construction in China has gradually shifted from economic construction to livelihood guarantee,the proportion of government spending on people's livelihood will be gradually increased.As the main component of the basic old-age insurance system,the self-balancing of the basic pension insurance of enterprises not only affects the sustainability of the basic pension insurance system,but also affects the government's future transfer payment level for the basic old-age insurance and individuals' enthusiasm of contribution.The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Decision on Some Big Issues of Complete and Deepened Reform adopted by the Third Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee mentioned that the principle of actuarial balance should be adhered to and a fairer and sustainable social security system should be established.The report of the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China also proposed to reform the enterprise social insurance system.Under the guidance of the Party Central Committee,relevant departments,scholars and the people in the government attach more attention to the reform of the pension insurance system.The reform of the pension insurance system is affected by multiple factors such as population,economy and politics.At the same time,the level of development of the pension insurance system will have an impact on population,economy and political environment.As the last line of defense to guarantee the living standards of retirees,any changes of parameters and operating modes of the basic old-age insurance system will have a greater impact on people's lives Therefore,relevant government departments are very cautious about the reform of the basic pension insurance system.The turnaround of basic pension insurance is very longer,which across the insured's working period and retirement period.The impact of a reform measure has an incubation period that will emerge in several years later.Through actuarial methods,the operating conditions of basic old-age insurance can be analysized from long-term perspective,which is easy to find potential risks and problems.At the same time,the effect of a reform on the future operation of basic pensions can be simulated in advance to test the rationality and scientificity of the reform plan.Therefore,the actuarial technology of the basic pension insurance system is necessary.Based on the pension insurance system in our country,the actuarial model of the financial pressure on basic pension insurance is estabilished for different insured people and different accounts(pooling account and individual account),which considersing the ages of the employees.As the income and expenditure of pension funds are mainly affected by population structure and economic factors,this thesis uses PADIS-INT population forecasting software to predict the urban population structure with three levels of high,medium and low fertility before year 2095 based on the urban population structure in 2015,in order to ensure the accuracy and practicability of the final result.Predict major economic variables through modeling.Draw lessons from overseas experience and design delayed retirement plans with different adjustment ranges.Under different scenarios,the pension fund will forecast the revenue and expenditure and financial payment pressure in the coming years.Under each of the plans,changes will be made to other major demographic and economic conditions The Influence of Various Factors on Financial Expenses Pressure of Basic Pension Insurance by Policy Parameters and Dynamic Simulation.From the two dimensions of stock and flow,this thesis analyzes the long-term comprehensive actuarial balance of the basic pension insurance and the balance between assets and liabilities in the system.Finally,according to the results of the calculation and analysis,find out the relationship between the relevant policy parameters and the actuarial balance of the basic pension insurance system,and select the reform plan that is most conducive to the actuarial balance of the basic pension insurance.The chapter 1 of this thesis analyzes current status and the research of the basic pension insurance of enterprise workers.The literature related to this study is also reviewed.On the basis of summarizing and comparing the previous scholars' research methods and research ideas,we make corresponding improvements.In the past,the empirical studies on the sustainability of the basic old-age insurance system used fewer actuarial methods to calculate and study them.However,due to the wide range of research objects,some of the hypotheses,methods and models in these literatures are too rough.The domestic scholars' actuarial studies on the pension insurance system are still in the process of continuous improvement.However,the long-term actuarial estimates on the future financial pressure of the basic old-age insurances and the actuarial analysis on the funds flow of the enterprise's basic old-age insurance through the perspective of flow have been not reported.The chapter 2 is the theoretical basis of this study,including the pension insurance system and actuarial theory related to the modeling of this article.The basic pension insurance system for employees of Chinese enterprises has been stablished since 1984,a pilot reform of social pooling of retirement benefits has been underway at state-owned enterprises at the municipal and county levels and has undergone continuous improvement so far.At present,the major provisions affecting the payment of basic pension insurance for enterprise employees and the mode of calculation and payment mainly include the Decision on Establishing a Unified System of Basic Pension Insurance for Workers and Workers and the Decision on Improving the Basic Pension Insurance System for Employees.The actuarial theory used in this thesis to establish actuarial models includes interest theory,life table theory and life annuity theory.The chapter 3 establishes the actuarial model of financial payment pressure of the basic pension insurance.According to the current basic pension insurance policy system of enterprise employees,taking full account of the differences in the mode of account,gender and grade applicable to all age insured population,based on the actuarial principle,the actuarial model is established for the fund flow and the financial payment pressure of the different insured population from 2016 to 2095 respectively.The main indicators in the actuarial model include two major categories,one is population structure and the other is policy and economic indicators.In chapter 4 and chapter 5,the related parameters are predicted.Considering the relaxation of China's fertility policy,chapter 4 predicts the urban population structure under high,medium and low fertility levels by Padis-int software respectively.Economic indicators,such as accounting interest rate,the ratio of actual contribution wage accounting for the social average wage,as well as the old-age insurance system parameters are estimated by the Gray Space Prediction Model.According to the historical data and current policies,the value of pension fund yield,coverage rate and other parameters are assumed.In chapter 6,the revenue,expenditure,balance scale and the financial payment pressure of basic pension insurance fund are calcucated,based on current system,from year 2016 to year 2095.The results show that the basicpension insurance fund is not sustainable under current pension insurance system.Based on the method of delaying retirement in other countries,this paper designs a three-step delayed retirement scheme,and designs three kinds of pace deferred retirement schemes,aiming at the difference of retirement age among female workers,female cadres and male workers.At last,from year 2016 to year 2095,the revenue,expenditure,balance scale and the financial payment pressure of basic pension insurance fund are calcucated,under each delayed retirement scheme.There are obvious differences in the financial payment pressure of the basic pension insurance under the high,medium and low fertility levels.Delaying retirement is helpful to improve the sustainability of basic pension insurance fund and to relieve the pressure of financial payment of basic pension insurance.In chapter 7,the main factors that affect the financial payment pressure of the basic pension insurance,such as the actual wage proportion,the accounting interest rate,are designed as 81 kinds of scenarios.Based on the current pension insurance system and the delayed retirement scheme,the paper calculates the financial payment pressure of the basic endowment insurance under 81 kinds of scenarios,respectively.The influence of various factors on the financial payment pressure of the basic pension insurance is analyzed from the horizontal and longitudinal dimensions.The chapter 8 summarizes the research results of this chapter and puts forward relevant policy recommendations.The results show that,under the current pension insurance system,the basic old-age insurance for enterprise employees is not financially sustainable,and will generate huge amounts of financial pressure and will increase year by year.The long-term sustainability of the basic pension insurance fund can be ensured if the fertility rate reaches a moderate level and the retirement age is raised by the pace of 0.25 years and above.However,because the sustainability of the basic pension insurance fund is susceptible to the change of economic environment,only by raising the fertility rate and delaying retirement can the basic pension insurance fund not be guaranteed the risk-resisting ability.In the calculation of basic parameters,it is found that the actual payment salary is not real,the pension treatment does not exist flexible adjustment space,all of them reduce the risk-resisting ability of the basic pension insurance fund.The following policy suggestions are put forward to improve the sustainability of basic pension insurance and relieve the pressure of financial payment of basic pension insurance.First,accelerate the realization of the overall adjustment of the basic pension.The financial payment pressure of basic pension insurance mainly comes from the basic pension that needs to pay retirees.The government's "fallback responsibility" for basic pensions weakens the motivation of the basic pension insurance system to achieve self balance,and will only rely more on the financial transfer payment,and increase the financial future payment risk.The government cannot shirk its responsibility for the basic pension insurance,but by clarifying the responsibilities of the central and local governments.The responsibility for making up the gap of the basic pension insurance fund will be apportioned between the central and local governments.The basic pension itself has the nature of the mutual benefit,and the basic pension implementation of a co-ordinated adjustment means that the mutual benefit of the pension can be achieved from the provincial level.This can not only achieve the optimal allocation of funds,but also to reduce the central government's pay pressure.In order to realize the co-ordinated adjustment of the basic pension,there are two matters needing attention: first,to peel off the historical scores of the basic pension insurance fund,and to clarify the specific supervisory responsibility of the central and local governments.Second,accelerate the realization of the goal of reproductive development.The results show that the increase of fertility level can obviously improve the sustainability of pension insurance fund and relieve the financial payment pressure of pension insurance.After the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy,the total fertility rate reached 1.7 in 2016,which is the peak of fertility since the new century,but it still falls short of the target fertility level.Although the current structure of the basic pension insurance fund has not been rationalized,the balance of the fund itself has been reduced.However,before the deficit of the basic pension insurance fund of the enterprise workers is coming,it is possible to reduce or even avoid the deficit of the basic pension insurance fund by speeding up the reform of the pension insurance system and realizing the goal of the reproductive development.Third,the gradual postponement of retirement should be "small steps".At present,the old-age insurance system is in the hot period of reform,many of the problems of fragmentation and historical problems should be solved.The government has intensified its efforts to deepen the reform of the pension insurance system.In this extraordinary period of history,reform for stability and alignment is most conducive to the implementation of reform policies and the reduction of hidden risks.It should be prudent to postpone the retirement of the people's immediate interests.The option of a "slow-walking" retirement policy can provide a more generous time to address the problems encountered in the implementation of the policy,while providing the space to improve and revise the policy.Fourth,establish the adjustment mechanism of pension treatment.The results of dynamic scenario simulation show that the sustainability of pension insurance fund is not only affected by the main factors of population structure,but also the change of economic environment will have a qualitative impact.The key point of setting up the adjustment mechanism of pension treatment is the selection of indexes and the design of model parameters,and puts forward some suggestions:(1)Adjust pension benefits according to the change of price index and wage growth rate;(2)Adjust the pension treatment according to the payment years and payment method;(3)The adjustment of pension treatment should be fair priority.Fifth,improve the basic pension insurance levy and payment mechanism.Because the basic pension insurance payment base,payment period provisions existing flexible space and the levy mechanism are not perfect,the phenomenon of less payment is more serious.Both employers and individuals have the motivation to pay less,so we should improve the basic pension insurance levy mechanism and strengthen the supervision in the process of the basic pension.First of all,clarify the fuzzy definition in the system stipulation.Secondly,establish universal social security information system.Finally,increase the mandatory and punitive efforts.The innovation of this article:The first innovation point of research: This paper establishes the dynamic actuarial model and forms a calculation method system of the financial payment pressure of the basic pension insurance for enterprise employees,which fills the blank of the calculation of the financial payment pressure of the basic pension insurance of the enterprise employees.Basic pension includes basic pension,transitional pension and personal account pension,and the transition of basic pension insurance system makes the way of basic pension is relatively complicated.Taking the basic pension insurance of enterprise employees as the research object,according to the basic pension insurance policy system of the current enterprise employees and taking into account the difference of the way of use,gender and grade of the employees of all ages,the thesis sets up the dynamic future budget actuarial model for the different insured population and the system is fully modeled.This model and calculation method system can be used to calculate the financial payment pressure of employees ' basic endowment insurance in the future points.The second innovation point of research: Some new techniques and methods are used in the calculation,which enriches the theory and method system of actuarial basis value prediction,including predicting the population structure by padis-int software,using the logarithmic normal distribution function to fit the fertility rate,predicting the actual wage proportion by the Grey Space Prediction model,constructing the model of the work-age salary growth rate and the growth rate of age-linked benefits and so on.This paper models the policy parameters and economic indicators.The forecast of urban population structure in the future is based on the historical data of urban population structure in our country,considering the influence of birth rate,mortality and mobility of different age.The urban population structures are calculated from high fertility level,middle fertility level and low fertility level separately.The accuracy of the calculation method is enhanced,which accords with the actual situation.It provides a reference for perfecting the population,economy and pension insurance policy.The third innovation point of research: Three types of delayed retirement schemes are designed;the factors that influence the financial payment pressure of basic pension insurance have been carried on 81 scenarios simulation,obtained the optimal delay retirement pace under different population and different economic environment,which provide example and theory foundation for the application of actuarial study of baisic pension insurance in the process of actual policy making.This thesis designs different steps of the delayed retirement scheme and 81 scenarios,respectively.The financial payment pressure of the basic pension insurance is calculated under each of deferred retirement schemes and scenarios.Considering the current population and economic background of our country,best delay retirement pace is chosen.Through scenario simulation,it is clear that the balance between parameters and economic indicators in the basic pension insurance system can help to construct the automatic regulation mechanism of basic pension insurance. |
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