Study On Sustainable Developments Of The Industry, Energy And Environment Concerned With The Carbon Footprint In Xinjiang

Traditional energy consumption based on the fossil fuels,brought about the greenhouse effect from carbon emissions,caused global warming,which has been recognized by the scientific community and the political community.Under urgent situation of the global response to climate change,carbon reduction has become the mainstream of the world.In this paper,we firstly measured carbon footprint about the energy consumption by building the corresponding model;then,revealed relationships among the economic growth,the industrial structure,and the energy consumption,discussed the balance of the carbon emission and carbon absorption,compared differences between the spatial and industrial sectors of different industrial carbon footprints;finally,predicted multi-scenario of the carbon footprint,proposed industrial structure of the carbon emission reduction plan and optimization model.The object of this study is to provide theoretical basis for the development of carbon emission reduction policies for government departments under the goal of leap-forward development.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The relationship of the economic growth and industrial structure in Xinjiang.Xinjiang’s GDP grew exponentially in 1978-2015.From the industrial structure in2015,Xinjiang is still a big agricultural province characterized by the industrial development behind of the developed provinces;the third industry surpassed the secondary industry for the first time,and the industrial structure developed at a higher level.The industrial structure of xinjiang changed in 1991 and may change again in2015.In 1978-1991,the GDP growth of the first,second and third industries in Xinjiang increased by 0.34%,0.38%and 0.28%respectively.The industrial structure of xinjiang has been transitioned from"first-second-third"structure to"second-first-third",indicating that it is in the early stage of industrialization.In 1992-2015,the GDP growth of the first,second and third industries increased by 0.23%,0.41%and 0.36%,respectively.The industrial structure has been transformed from the structure of"second-one-third"to the"third-second-third"structure,and in the later period,the pattern of"third-second-first"has emerged,and the industrial structure has shown signs of high level.For every 1%increase in GNP,the output value of the first,second and third industries will be increased(0.70-0.16LnY)%,(0.08+0.02LnY)%and(1.47+0.06LnY)%;With the growth of the economy,the growth of the first industry slowed,the second industry maintained the growth rate,and the third industry accelerated.From the regional differences,Tuscaloosa area was largely relying on the first industry,the cities of Karamay,Shihezi and Hami were relatively dependent on the second industry,and the cities of Urumqi and turpan and Ili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture and other regions of the third industry is more developed.(2)Energy consumption and carbon balance.In 1978-2015,Xinjiang’s total energy consumption and carbon emissions was in a exponential growing trend.In terms of the structure of energy consumption,The total energy consumption of coal always occupied a large proportion,the oil consumption continued to fall,the gas consumption was growing,It’s a fast development on the energy of water and electricity,windy power and solar energy;The energy structure in Xinjiang is being optimized.for the carbon balance,the biomass organic carbon reserves on the ground was 13124.6 per ten thousand tons according to the calculation of organic carbon and soil organic carbon in the above-ground biomass in 2015;the biomass organic carbon reserves on the ground in Xinjiang was 1640000 per ten thousand tons at the soil depth of 0-100 cm.In 2015,the carbon emission in Xinjiang was 9864.7 per ten thousand tons,the carbon absorption of various vegetation was 13124.6 per ten thousand tons,and there was an ecological surplus in carbon absorption.By 2020,the carbon emission in Xinjiang will be 13852.8 per ten thousand tons,and be exceed carbon absorption for the first time.At present,the speed of afforestation cannot keep pace with the growth of carbon emissions,and we need to speed up afforestation.(3)Analysis of carbon footprint.The per capital carbon footprint of xinjiang was on the rise with a lower growing rate than that of the corresponding GDP per person;The carbon footprint of coal accounts for more than 60%of the main carbon footprint,the carbon footprint was on the rise,whereas the intensity of carbon footprint decreased.The output value of carbon footprint showed an increasing trend for all the three industry,The per capital carbon footprint increased year by year for the first and secondary industry,whereas the per capital carbon footprint showed an trend of"falling-rising-falling for the third industry.Karamay had the highest per capital carbon footprint in xinjiang;The per capital carbon footprint of Changji and Shihezi increased rapidly;the economic growth was significantly slower than the per capital carbon footprint in Changji and Shihezi,It indicates that he economic growth of changji and shihezi is driven by a large amount of energy consumption and be still in the early stages of industrialization.The total energy consumption has the greatest impact on GDP growth,indicating that GDP growth still needs to be driven by the growing energy consumption.With the growth of the economy,the efficiency of energy utilization,the conversion efficiency of energy processing and the development of the tertiary industry have become more and more important,and the role of the first industry has been reduced.The ecological pressure of the carbon footprint of energy consumption in xinjiang is increasing year by year since 1990,and the ecological pressure in xinjiang is far smaller than that of the eastern coastal areas and the central hinterland.The STIRPAT model shows that the economic growth and carbon footprint do not present the"U"type with environment kuznets curve,the per capita GDP and population growth is an important factor that influencing the growth of carbon footprint,the carbon intensity is negatively correlated with the carbon footprint.The decoupling index calculates that the economic growth pattern of Xinjiang requires a large amount of energy consumption,which has not undergone a substantial transformation,however,the energy consumption in xinjiang gradually changed from"extensive"to"intensive".(4)Scenario prediction of the low carbon development.In 2015-2050,in the three scenarios of benchmark,energy saving and low carbon,the total energy demand,carbon footprint intensity and carbon footprint of the benchmark scenario are significantly higher than that of energy saving scenarios and low-carbon scenarios.In2050,the carbon footprint of three scenarios were 96912.8 thousand hm~2、43287.2thousand hm~2 and 20133.5 thousand hm~2 respectively.In the three scenarios,total energy consumption will peak in 2045,2040 and 2035;.The carbon footprint will peak in 2045,2045 and 2040.In the three scenarios,the intensity of carbon footprint showed a decline,but in the low carbon scenario,the intensity of carbon footprint decreased by three times as much as the baseline scenario.To achieve a carbon footprint in a low-carbon scenario would be at the expense of economic growth..In the context of the development of the western region,the central Xinjiang forum and the construction of the silk road economic belt,the low carbon scenario is expected to be difficult to achieve.However,there is a large carbon emission space in Xinjiang,and the realization of energy-saving scenarios is still quite feasible.(5)Optimization of industrial structure and countermeasures of carbon reduction The results can be seen from the optimization and adjustment of the three industrial structures in Xinjiang.that,the proportion of first and second industries has been gradually reduced and the proportion of third industry has increased.The first industry decreased 6.05%,the second industry decreased 2.055%and the third industry increased 8.108%after optimization.From the industry segment,energy-consuming,high pollution,high emissions of energy,raw materials and chemical industry need to be optimized as key industries,and low energy consumption,low emissions,relatively high employment at industry need to increase in the proportion of industry.We can develop low-carbon regional economic construction.Based on the low-carbon development model,relevant countermeasures and Suggestions are put forward for regional industrial development,consisting of fostering a low-carbon industry,promoting optimization and upgrading of the industrial chain,optimizing the energy structure,promoting the development and application of energy-saving technologies to enhance building energy conservation,driving green building to develop green traffic,encouraging low-carbon travel,designing carbon finance mechanism and carrying out legal safeguard of system construction,and developing carbon finance in the space of carbon emission in Xinjiang,finally to promote low-carbon development in Xinjiang.