| With the trend of economic globalization and global financial integration,the correlation of economic and financial between countries in the world is getting higher and higher,and the cross-border capital flows among countries are also becoming more and more frequent,especially the cross-border capital that flows into emerging market countries does not only continue to expand in size,but also often occurs in sudden stops and surges.The financial impact of the "large and unexpected" cross-border capital flows on capital-importing countries is increasing.Both developed and emerging market countries,regardless of its status in the world is mainly capital importer or exporter countries,they will be in the wave of extreme cross-border capital flows.The researchers found that there have been violent fluctuations in cross-border capital both before and after all previous financial crises.From the 1990 s to the beginning of the 21 st century,the financial crisis in Mexico,Thailand,Argentina and Brazil all witnessed a surge and sudden stop of cross-border capital.After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008,the Federal Reserve started the first quantitative easing policy on November 25,2008 in order to stabilize the currency market and to reconstruct financial institutions credit,and then had the QE2 to QE4.These policies had greatly increased the U.S.monetary base,and at the same time the implementation of the low interest rate policy caused a dramatic expansion of liquidity in the market.United Kingdom,Japan,Brazil,Australia and other countries also follow America to inject liquidity into the market.The Capital which financial markets in the world did not completely absorbed by the real economy flows into other countries through the international financial market.The extreme cross-border capital flows that have a huge impact on the macro-economy and financial stability make government aware of the need to monitor extreme flows.This paper chooses to study “extreme cross-border capital flows”,it is a new perspective for the study of cross-border capital flows,and it proposes a new measurement method of extreme cross-border capital flows and it also provides support for empirical research on the motivation of extreme cross-border capital flows,which is the theoretical significance of this paper.The practical significance of this paper lies in to open up the research of China's extreme cross-border capital flows,to use new measurement methods to study the global and China's extreme cross-border capital flows,to study the influencing factors of China's extreme cross-border capitalflows and to propose suggestions.The main conclusions of this paper are:(1)This paper proposes a new methodology depending on the behavior of gross and net capital flows to measure extreme flows in order to define various types of extreme flows more clearly.The reliability of this taxonomy is tested by using four emerging market economies that have experienced the financial crisis,the results show that this methodology can clearly distinguish the periods in which different types of extreme cross-border capital flows occur in different countries,and the extreme flows periods that are derived by this methodology are in good agreement with the actual situation,and shows that this methodology is effective and feasible.(2)A comparative analysis of the extreme cross-border capital flows of developed countries and emerging market countries is conducted by using the measurement method designed in this paper.The results show that there are significant differences in the frequency,duration and other characteristics of cross-border capital flows in different types of countries.Compared with the existing measurement methods,the measurement method is simpler,and can more accurately identify the extreme cross-border capital flows.This comparative analysis validates the validity of the measurement method designed in this paper from another perspective.(3)There are global,contagious,and domestic factors leading to extreme flows of cross-border capital.Regardless of whether they are developed countries or emerging market countries,global risk factors are the most important influencing factors that affecting the cross-border flows of different types of countries.Compared with developed countries,emerging market countries are more vulnerable to contagion and domestic factors.The flows of cross-border capital to emerging market countries are closely related to their domestic factors.(4)Using China as an example,The empirical analysis confirm that the extreme flows of cross-border capital have significant impact on the macro-economy of capital import countries,and the types of extreme cross-border capital flows have significant differences influence in the capital import countries.(5)The research results for China indicate that both the degree of financial openness and the growth rate of macroeconomics have significant impact on extreme flows of gross capital and net capital.This article is divided into eight chapters.The specific structure is as follows:The first chapter is to expound the research background,the theoretical and practical significance of the topic,the structure and main contents,the main innovations and deficiencies.The second chapter is to sort out and review the domestic and foreign literatures,and provide theoretical basis for the following chapters.The third chapter is to construct and verify a new measurement method of extreme cross-border capital flows.Existing measurement methods of extreme cross-border capital flows can be supplemented or improved.On the basis of the analysis in this chapter,we try to build a measurement method that more clearly reflects the extreme flows of cross-border capital.This method is used to measure surge and sudden stops in net cross-border capital flows and surge,sudden stops,flights,and retrenchments in gross capital flows.The fourth chapter is to use the measurement method designed in this paper and the current general measurement method to study the extreme global cross-border capital flows,and to make the comparative analysis extreme flows of gross capital flows and net capital flows of developed countries and emerging market countries.The results show that it is significant different in the frequency of extreme cross-border capital flows between developed countries and emerging market countries no matter what method is used to measure.Emerging market countries are more prone to the surge and sudden stops in gross capital flows and net capital flows.The fifth chapter is an empirical study of the cumulative distribution function model of extreme cross-border capital flows.Forbes & Warnock(2012)had used this model to study influence factors of the extreme cross-border capital flows.we also use it to examine the factors that influence the extreme cross-border capital flows of developed and emerging market countries.The results show that different types countries have different influence factors because of the significant differences in financial openness,economic conditions,and other aspects of the country,and the reasons for the extreme gross capital flows and net capital flows are also different.The sixth chapter is to study the extreme cross-border capital flows in China,and to study its impact on currency market,exchange rate market,and interest rate market in China.The results indicate that different types of extreme cross-border capital flows have a different significant impact on China's macro-economy.The seventh chapter is to use the model that constructed in chapter fifth to study the influence factors of cross-border capital flows in China.The results show that China's extreme cross-border capital flows are affected by global factors,contagious factors and domestic factors.Different types of extreme flows have differentinfluencing factors.The eighth chapter is a summary of the full text.Based on this,it is proposed that the experience of other countries should be used to strengthen the management of China's cross-border capital flows. |
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