Research On The Volatility Of Cross-border Capital Flows And The Sensitive Factors

Since the 1980 s, along with economic globalization and financial liberalization gradually, active unprecedentedly cross-border capital flows, the average growth rate is as high as 14.6% of global cross-border capital flows, and at the same time, compared to 3.9% of global GDP growth rate of nearly three times faster. While China as the world's largest developing country, in the economic system and international financial markets of the world has a pivotal position. In recent years, our country actively adjust the economic policy, actively participate in the global economic integration, steady and rapid development of domestic economy, the domestic scale rapid growth in cross-border capital flows, has promoted the development of the domestic economy, the financial, but also to the economy of our country inevitably caused a certain degree of impact on the financial stability.Research on cross-border capital flows has been a hot topic of scholars, at different times, different countries show new characteristics of cross-border capital flows, and thus has been research on a regular basis, but not yet a final verdict. Cross-border capital flows of the sensitivity of factors research has a long history, but variability studies do attention by scholars in recent years. This article first from the inflow, outflow and the overall size contrast three angle analysis of the status quo of cross-border capital flows, and then, the scale of cross-border capital flows in China, mainly divided into the flow in the table size is calculated and the recessive size measurement, lay a foundation for volatility measure and sensitivity factor analysis. Subsequently, variability and sensitivity factors of cross-border capital flows on the empirical analysis of the various types of cross-border capital volatility measure, found that the variability of the covert cross-border capital flow is far greater than in the table of cross-border capital flows, and increased the overall variability of cross-border capital flows, and point variability measure, remove individual years, the three types of cross-border capital fluidity are within acceptable range. In the factor analysis of the sensitivity of cross-border capital flows, financial factors, economic factors and the virtual factors on the influence degree of each type of cross-border capital is different, and the points belong to each factor of the influence of each variable for each type of cross-border capital path also differ. Finally, combining with the above analysis, in view of the trend of the cross-border capital flows in our country, put forward policy suggestions on three aspects.