Investors Empirical Study On The Influencing Factors Of Short-Term Cross-Border Capital Flows In China

Since the 2008 financial crisis,China’s short-term cross-border capital flows have taken on three stages.The first stage is from 2010 to 2011,the short-term cross-border capital shows the overall inflow status;the second stage is from 2012 to 2014,China’s short-term cross-border capital shows an inflow and outflow status;the third stage is 2014 to the present,China’s shortterm Cross-border capital showed an overall outflow and reached a maximum value of capital outflows in 2016.In January 2016,capital outflows exceeded $150 billion.The outflow of RMB capital caused by the demand for foreign investment by enterprises(QDII)and individuals(QDII2)has also become a major component of China’s short-term cross-border capital flows.Therefore,when considering the scale of short-term cross-border capital flows,it is necessary to consider not only international The impact of influence and domestic macro factors,the expectations of micro-subjects can not be ignored.Based on the review of domestic and foreign research backgrounds and the actual situation of the country,this paper integrates the influencing factors of short-term cross-border capital.Six factors were selected as research objectives,monthly data from 2010 to 2018 were extracted,and VAR and SVAR models were used to draw conclusions: short-term cross-border capital flows for themselves,bank valet forward settlement and sale settlement differences,expected exchange rate The spot exchange rate,the Chinese and foreign interest rate differentials,and the price index are relatively sensitive;the short-term cross-border capital flows have a strong correlation with the expected exchange rate of the bank’s long-term settlement and sale agreements.In summary,the study of sensitive factors will help China’s regulatory authorities to establish a macro-prudential system for short-term cross-border liquid capital,prevent problems before they occur,and effectively buffer the impact of shocks.This is also the significance of this study.