Early Warning Mechanism Of Cross-border Capital Flows And Financial Macro Control Research

The cross-border capital flows, monitoring and early warning and warning instructions tomake financial regulatory policy research to deepen foreign exchange management system reform,perfect the system of foreign exchange settlement and cross-border capital supervision, promotecapital account convertibility, pioneering the use of foreign exchange reserves rationality hasimportant significance." Hot money"(the international floating capital) is a cross-border capital monitoring, warningand important component, is the relationship between China's capital market and currency marketstability is important economic factor, but the "hot money" into China's financial market in the formof diversity and flexibility caused by monitoring is not accurate, immeasurable and early warning.In this paper, according to the" hot money" volatility characteristics, combined with China'sinternational balance of payments project stability factors, the monitoring of "hot money" the sizeof the main indicators are: trade surplus, a net inflow of direct investment, return on investment,overseas listing and financing, foreign exchange reserve increment back. According to the size ofthe model to calculate the annual "hot money" scale, and then use the scale of foreign exchangereserve data with GDP, IIP, comparison, and then through the analysis of variance yielded" hotmoney" scoring model, according to the score and the volatility is calculated according to the sizeof the warning interval, interval real-time early warning early warning.External debt early warning index is mainly the solvency ratio, debt ratio, debt ratio, andshort-term debt out of proportion, through several indicators analysis of variance estimation, scoringmodels, then according to the scoring and volatility characteristics calculation interval, the intervalfor real-time monitoring and early warning, early warning of financial regulation policies accordingto the present.The cross-border capital flows of international balance of payments account, current accountand capital account monitoring and early warning, is the current account and capital account each early warning indicators for main part. This paper established a regular project cash flowmonitoring and early warning and the capital project fund flow monitoring, early warningmechanism. Through the monitoring, early warning system, the various indicators of real-time earlywarning indicator, according to the early warning indicator of financial regulatory policyrecommendations.This article through the monitoring system, early warning system and control system research,the "hot money" early warning scoring model, external debt early warning scoring model, oftenunder the project cash flow forecasting model and the capital project cash flow forecasting model.Through the years the data test to detect early warning model over the economic factor has greatanastomosis." Hot money" as an example, in2006the "hot money" warning is too small, theoutflow of hot money, the price of the stock market index decreased;2009"hot money" warningindicator slants much, the inflow of hot money, the stock market prices rise.Through the cross-border capital flows monitoring, early-warning results, combined with theactual situation in China, demonstrates the cross-border capital flow financial regulatory policy are:interest rate policy, exchange rate policy, government intervention and cross-border financingsystem to guide in real time. For example: through government intervention and regulation projectof devaluation policy often" too little" warning instructions; through the interest rate policy,exchange rate policy, government intervention and regulation system to guide the capital andfinancial account warning indicator.