The Research Of Scale Diffusion And Duration Time Of Incidents Microblog Public Opinion

As an important social tool for Internet development,microblog has attracted millions of users through its unique mode.Large user groups,convenient basic technical characteristics,fission mode of information communication,make the microblog become the the birthplace of public opinion,how to accurately predict the spread of the hot issues public opinion scale is important at the present stage.Based on the analysis of events,microblogging public opinion transmission process model could be build,according to this model by adopting the combination of empirical and theoretical model,respectively to study the event microblogging public opinion transmission main body participation model and the model for the duration of the participation.The research of this paper mainly includes the following six parts:(1)The diffusion of microblog public opinion mainly include events,microblog public opinion,microblog users,and microblog information.Firstly,the concept and characteristics of event and microblog public opinion are analyzed.Secondly,the main characteristics of microblog users are studied,and the distribution characteristics of parameters such as gender,age,length of service,number of followers and number of followers are analyzed.Finally,the propagation mode of microblog information is analyzed.(2)Based on the analysis of the characteristics of the public opinion communication,the the oretical model including participating subjects and communication stages of microblog public opinion difussion process is constructed by combining with the grounded theory.On this basis,by using the stochastic Petri net model,markov chain model,established the event in the process of the propagation of the microblogging public opinion stochastic Petri net model and its isomorphic SPN model,and model is verified by the simulation method of multiple participation main effect and prove the validity of the model.(3)Based on the analysis of individual user's participation behavior,combined with the theory of technology acceptance model,involvement,motivation theory,we have constructed the microblogging public opinion dissemination wich involving information source,the public opinion,microblogging platform.Adopts questionnaire and structural equation model to test the constructed model,and then identify the significant main factors influencing the behavior of individual users.SIR model for reference,build the event-based attention,microblog users trust and habits of the individual user participation behavior probability model,to participate in the prediction model of scale are obtained,and the validity of the model is verified by simulation experiments.(4)By analyzing the organization users behavior,the model of the organization users' participation evaluation model is build combined with the set pair analysis.Microblog public opinion transmission will identify the main factors affecting their participation will,on the basis of building the organization based on forward participation behavior user microblogging public opinion propagation model,and thus concluded that participate in the size of the prediction model,and through the simulation results verify the validity of the model.(5)Based on individuals users',organization users' involvement scale model,the event duration of microblogging public opinion dissemination size model is analyzed combined the COX proportional hazards regression model,then we construct the event duration of microblogging public opinion dissemination size prediction model,and the validity of the model are verified through the loop prove method.(6)Summary the each stage of the event microblog public opinion transmission,all kinds of characteristics and the law of user participation behavior,analyzes the main problems in microblog public opinion diffusion,the guidance strategies are proposed aiming at the existing problems in individual users,organization users and the official microblog platform.