Research On The Microblog Public Opinion Propagation Model On The Media Platform And Its Application

The network media develops rapidly on the Internet platform, People have the opportunity and ability to express the opinion and spread the information. When the social change, The netizen comments, opinions and dissatisfaction with hot issues, emergency event and sensitive issues is easy to induce network public opinion, and it comes in great numbers. The microblog public opinion who has the feature of abruptness, instantaneity, interactivity and high impact is a new expression form of Internet public opinion, It has become the uncertain factors that affect national security and social stability, it has become the new problem of network public opinion monitoring, early warning and control of decision-support areas.This paper use the theory of Hidden Markov Model, select three-dimensional indexes of netizens characteristics, information topics and content integrity, divided the evolution of microblog public opinion events into four stages as formation, development, fluctuation, die, base on which to establish the HMM state space, determine observation, calculate the relevant parameters, thus build the HMM of microblog public opinion evolutionary analysis, It has reveal the general rule of public opinion evolution. And on the basis of this model to analyse the functional requirement, interface requirement and port requirement of the microblog public opinion control early warning system, implement the informational method for public opinion information collection, analysis and control early warning. The evolution of microblog public opinion studying has important theoretical significance and practical value of public opinion monitoring, early warning and control.