Open Source Intelligence Theory Construction And Application In Chinese Intelligence Practice

It is rapid that development of OSINT(Open Source Intelligence).Due to the transformation and application of ICT(Information and Communication Technology)takes increasing risk of society,global informationization and change of intelligence culture.The 80%of content of the final intelligence product can be obtained from OSINT.This assertion has been recognized widely by the intelligence community and academia of developed countries,and even higher proportion.Meanwhile,it is gradually familiar and then accepted in China.However,the 80%value as a quantitative description of what is scientific inference or intuition merely has not yet been clearly demonstrated.It is emphasized that OSINT is an important area for the intelligence works of security,military,politics and economics,etc.But this doesn't attract broad attention in our intelligence studies.It seems that OSE(Open Source Exploitation)should be and valuable in a lot of literatures.It is brief that both why OSINT has effectiveness and how to describe its contribution.Totally,academic research about OSINT is minority.Most of them are summarizing and thinking to practice from the perspective of politics,culture,and organizational structure discussed by practitioners.Moreover,arguments and methodological knowledge are absent in academic research.In addition,lack of system thinking and theoretical induction to OSINT activities.And what is role of analysis in OSINT activities doesn't have definite cognition,also lack of further consideration about method match with the role.Generally,the intelligence activities which nature is OSINT have long been widely carried out in China,but few people explore the field that relationship of theory and practice.Therefore,this research uses case study as research strategy and guided by grounded theory.The analysis unit mainly comes from organization of public and private sector about intelligence,security,law enforcement,etc.in Britain,United States and so on.Processing of data and construction of theory uses normative qualitative research course.This research not only answers the primary research question 'what are the core categories that describe the contribution of OSINT to intelligence;Could these core categories construct a model or not' but also answers some outspread questions.First,this research analyzes OSINT activities by system thinking and system dynamics method for foundation of model construction.Then it sorts out 4 sets variable which are environmental variables,OSINT production variables,production subject variables,communication variables and their classification criteria is intrinsic relations of knowledge.Then these variables as a reference to code core categories.Second,model construction has 3 stages:the prototype building,refining the model and model validation.After then this research presents and redefines 7 core categories by normative academic research and more adequate arguments,the core categories are:utility;context;communication and collaboration;analysis;focus;adaptability;and cross-check.Consequently,constructs contribution model and obtains research conclusion that the existing literatures don't have.The conclusion is that utility increasing and context supplying as a premise,communication and collaboration as a driving force,and analysis as the core to bring focus and enhance adaptability,ultimately cross-check with closed sources intelligence to produce high-quality intelligence products.This result makes up for the deficiencies of the existing literature,enhances the understanding of OSINT,explains the motivation of rapid development of OSINT,and provides valuable fundamental contribution for more in-depth study on application of OSINT.Third,this research finds some other OSINT features while constructing contribution model,including:the development of OSINT organization;the position of OSINT in intelligence activities;basic process of OSINT;ideal team structure for OSINT exploitation.Fourth,this research confirms the core position of 'analysis',OSINT analysis methods are discussed.This research concludes that the intelligence analysis should have both scientific and artistic quality and maintain necessary tension between the two;mindset inevitably nothing more than good or bad,but cognitive biases need to overcome,which put forward the OSINT analysis method group based on concept of set and group.Fifth,this research uses OSINT contribution model as theoretical guidance and the author's project experience as case material,elaborates a case that university also could fulfill the requirement of military intelligence by OSINT.It hopes to develop a road of "civilian intelligence" for strengthening competitive advantage of China.The contribution of this paper is mainly reflected in three aspects:First of all,finds that the lack of OSINT theory research by literature review.After a series of case studies,constructs OSINT contribution model based on 7 core categories,and summarizes other features to enhance the understanding of OSINT,makes fundamental theoretical contributions to promote OSINT research.Secondly,by means of OSINT theory research,this research guides OSINT practice work from the perspective of analytical methods and application.Moreover,gives some recommendations to Chinese OSINT development.Thirdly,this research uses case study as research strategy and guided by grounded theory and system dynamics method.The normative qualitative research course facilitates that theory emerges from phenomenon spontaneously,enriches information science research methods and techniques,and enhances capacity of theory construction.Honestly,there are some shortages in this research in that restraint of time,vigor and research resources.It needs more compare and research sequentially in the future by selecting more samples and theories,in order to enrich the intension of concepts and categories,deepen the results,obtain more findings,contribute more to the theoretical development which presented by this research.Furthermore,in future the concepts and categories which presented by this research based on case studies analysis units need to quantify verification that contains large sample statistical data to make result of the research has more universality and can be used to guide more extensive practice of OSINT.