Dynamic Of Population Migration Driven By Economic Interests

The human society is a typical complex system.With the aid of complex system theory and some sta-tistical physics thoughts,the quantitative investigations on the dynamics of human and their social systems to reveal quantitatively the universal laws and the corresponding mechanisms are conducted in a multidisciplinary field.The field covers physics,mathematics,system science,control science,management science,sociology,and so on.This thesis focuses on the human migration behaviors by means of statistical dynamics theory,dy-namics modeling and the analogy between electron transferring on an atom lattice and human migration.These investigations are trying to obtain more comprehensive descriptions and understandings for human migration and the closely related regional economics.The main contents are as follows:Chapter 1 introduces the progress in the complex systems and human behaviors,including the brief history of complex system research,application of statistical physics in complex systems,the spatiotemporal dynamics of human behavior,especially the dynamics of population migration.In addition,the main investigations are schematically shown;the motivation,theoretical framework and the specific methods of these investigations are presented.Chapter 2 presents the empirical results related to migrations.1)The data of population and GDP from 1990 to 2013 for 150 cities in China are collected and the distribution law behind them is revealed.2)By an-alyzing the population data of the provinces locating in the developed areas of our country from 1990 to 2009,the dependence of regional economic amount on population,the universality and particularity of population evolution as well as the laws dominating the population migration and the intermittent characteristics of dy-namics are brought to light.And the techniques dealing with some sparse statistical samples are suggested to reduce the fitting error.3)A statistical analysis,on the total areas of the built-up regions within 31 provinces in China from 1998 to 2016,is carried out to reflect indirectly the rapid development of economy and population migration.4)Based on the data of the fifth and sixth population censuses in China on the educational level of the floating population,the transformation of the economic developing mode is investigated to predict the social population and the economic status in the future.Chapter 3 shows the discussions on the statistical dynamics of population migration which can exhibit the law of population distribution obtained empirically and predict the trend of population and economic developing in the future.Based the correlation between the famous Cobb-Douglas production function and the economic developing model proposed by Harrod-Domar,a generalized Langevin equation for describing the change of regional population is established.And then it is transformed,by certain mathematical techniques,into the Fokker-Planck equation which expresses the evolution of population distribution probability.The regularity of population distribution is obtained by resolving the equation,which unfolds to us an historic picture from the primitive society to the future of our world.The distribution law of economy amount can be translated from the law of population distribution via introducing a relation function between population and GDP,which also predicts the picture on the wealth distribution in the future world.Chapter 4 suggests a dynamic model for population migration under the action of resultant force-driving force which is denoted by the attraction of higher economic benefits at the destination,resistance force which is characterized by the lack of employment opportunity and related to the population at the destination,migration cost correlated with the migration distance.The dynamic rules include:1)The driving force is proportional to the difference of the per capita Gross Domestic Product(GDP)of the immigration region and that of emi-gration region.2)The migration cost determined by the distance between immigration and emigration regions is emerged into the driving force.The latter is inversely proportional to the former.3)The resistance force is defined by the difference between the population in immigration region and that of the emigration region(the greater the difference is,the larger the population in immigration region is,the smaller the employment opportunities are,and the stronger the repelling to the migrant population is).4)The so-called self-regulation mechanism,dominating evolution of a general open system,is introduced to describe the variation of the com-prehensive technical factor which embodies the wealth-creating efficiency of the population and that of the fixed capital investment.In other words,the comprehensive technical factor in the C-D production function is adjusted by the feedback of the growths of the GDP,the population and the fixed capital investment.The model works well to simulate the behavior of population migration,to reproduce the regularities dominating the migration.The migration network is constructed,which is formed by the "active" regions where the migration is taking place at the same time.The values and/or the distributions of the network parameters as well as the change of structure entropy for the network provides a good deal of insight into the dynamic origins of the migration laws.Chapter 5 proposes a dynamic model based on the similarities between the attraction of a region to the people and the confine of an atom to the electrons.An atom can be regarded as a region,and an extranuclear electron can be taken as a group of persons of which the unit may be hundred/thousand/ten thousand/...,the attraction strengthen of a region to the persons can be denoted by the nuclear charge number.The structure of an atom is described by the Bohr's atomic model.Thus,a dynamic model of migration reflecting individual differences is constructed by an atom lattice.The migration rules are:1)If the activity of a node(denoted by the ionization energy of the corresponding atom,the lower the ionization of the atom is,the higher the activity of the node is)is higher than that of,at least,one node among its 4 nearest neighbors,the node can represent an underlying emigration region.2)The node of which the attraction to the electron is biggest among the nearest neighbors of the "underlying emigration region" can denote the corresponding immigration region(please note that the atom which possesses the lowest potential energy corresponds to the region of which the regional economic developed degree is highest).3)The so-called shielding effect of extranuclear electrons can be taken as the repulsive effect of a region to the immigrants due to the crowded residents.4)The Logistic model is used to describe the natural increase of population.The model also works well to describe the migrations between the regions.Here the influence of the initial distributions of the populations among the regions,on the evolutive trends of population and economy,is mainly researched to illustrate the corresponding characteristics and mechanisms.Chapter 6 presents the conclusions and discussions,and puts forward some ideas and suggestions for the future research in the field of human behavior dynamics.