The Influence Of Fertility Decision-making On Family Utility And Economic Behavior-Enlightenment Of "Two Children Policy"

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2015,the proportion of the population aged 60 and over in our country has risen from 10%in 2000 to 16.1%.The problem of population aging is becoming more and more serious.The issue of pension for the elderly is gradually being taken seriously.How to protect the welfare of the elderly and improve their standard of living have become the important task for the government to solve the livelihood problems in the future.The impact on economic growth is accompanied by a series of problems such as the disappearance of "demographic dividend",the shortage of effective labor supply and rising labor costs.This is also the main reason why the state liberalized its birth control in 2016 and fully implemented the "two-child policy." From the perspective of social security,the pension gap gradually widened due to the late development of social pension insurance in our country and the imperfect social pension insurance system.At the same time,the "one-child policy" implemented in 1979 caused a dramatic increase in the number of one-child families.With these parents entering the old age stage after the policy,the issu of providing support to families with difficulties and difficulties has now emerged.Therefore,a comprehensive "two-child policy" is also an effective measure to tackle the problem of aggravating the aging of the population,increasing pressure on the aged for the elderly and for family retiring from the elderly.In addition,under the conditions of.overcapacity and insufficient effective demand,the comprehensive "two-child policy" can effectively raise the level of household consumption and expand the demand market,namely "supply-side reform in the consumer market." With the "fewer children" and "late children" in the developed western countries gradually appearing in our country,the importance of research on the effects of parental decision-making,the future family utility,and the sharing of support for children has become self-evident.There are few studies on economics in these areas,especially the sharing caregiving.Even if sociology is concerned,the methodological rigor and the accuracy of the results are still in doubt.Since the founding of the People's Republic of China,the gradual birth-control policy has provided a series of very good "quasi-natural experiments" for the study of this article.Even the "one-child policy" in 1979 has significant differences in its influence and implementation on different groups of people and in different regions.For example,ethnic minorities are not affected and rural areas are more relaxed.All these provide the research design for this article Very good "experimental platform."With the increase of micro-survey data and the free disclosure in recent years,it has ensured the availability and authority of the research data in this paper.Due to the above objective conditions,the research on the impact of maternity decision-making on family utility and economic behavior can be carried out smoothly and the family and social effects brought about by the "two-child policy" can be better predicted.As a whole,this paper studies the cost and benefit of family-rearing decision-making,and the links between chapters and chapters are closely linked and closely linked.Among them,the benefits of childbearing decisions are divided into gains for parents and benefits for children,and the research on the two objects is conducted separately from economic benefits and non-economic benefits.The first and second chapters are the preparatory stages of the research,focusing on the analysis of the background,value and innovation,the theoretical and empirical literature on the relevant research review.The third chapter to the sixth chapter is the main part of the research,among them,the third chapter to the fifth chapter is about the earnings research of fertility decision-making,including the third chapter is the study of children's income,the fourth and the fifth chapter is the study of parents'income The sixth chapter is about the cost of fertility decision-making research.The main part of the study follows the first to build a theoretical model,post-empirical test research ideas.The last chapter summarizes the conclusions of the empirical part of the study,and based on this policy recommendations.The main part of this article's research design and main conclusions are as follows:First,the impact of family planning decisions on children's utility.Using CHARLS2013 data,an empirical analysis of the number of sibs and intergenerational behavior in the family was carried out.It revealed for the first time the objective endogeneity and solved the problem with new instrumental variables.It was found that there was a significant positive correlation between the number of siblings and whether there was intergenerational support,and intergenerational support There was a significant negative correlation between the number of siblings and the number of siblings,which had two mechanisms of action on family intergenerational behavior:decision-making motivation and responsibility sharing.Heterogeneous effects of different sub-loci,regions and genders were also studied.In view of the pressure of non-economic support,studying the influence of the number of siblings on home-based caregivers' time and visit energy has found that they can significantly share the pressure from these two aspects.Second,the impact of the number of children on pension security.The first attempt was made to construct a theoretical model to analyze the sources of controversy about the impact of the number of children on the financial support for the elderly and to test the relationship between the number of children and the extent and intergenerational supporters using the Heckman two-stage alternative model using CHARLS2013 data.After solving endogeneity through instrumental variables,this paper argues that as the number of children increases,the likelihood and extent of the elderly receiving intergenerational support have risen significantly.In addition,the paper finds that the impact of the elderly in rural areas is significantly higher than that of the urban elderly;the degree of influence is weakened with the increase of the incomes of the elderly;the behavior of the children supporting the elderly has the"demonstration effect" of intergenerational generations;and the increase of the number of children brings more Is the improvement of quality of life.Third,the influence of court decision on parental welfare.Combining with self-interest and altruism,a theoretical model was constructed.Using the CHARLS2013 data,an ordered Probit model was used to study the influence of children's size on the life satisfaction of the elderly.After using the instrumental variables to solve endogeneity,we found that the more children they live in,the higher their satisfaction with current life and the children's scale are positively correlated with the life satisfaction of the elderly.Then,we analyze the internal mechanism of analyzing the influence of children's scale on the life satisfaction of the elderly from three aspects:the elderly receive their children's economic and goods support,the daily care and visit and the spiritual comfort.In addition,the distinction between economic utility and non-economic utility is made.It is concluded that the increase of the number of children brings more non-economic benefits than economic benefits.Fourth,the impact of the number and structure of children on family economic decision-making.The 2013 CHIP survey data was selected to study the impact of children aged two or more on family economic behavior before entering the labor market.Using multi-child families as the treatment group and single-child families as the control group,the study using entropy equilibrium method shows that:in the period of child support,the rate of household savings of rural children with multi-children is 5.95%lower than that of only-child families,whether single-child families or two children The difference caused by the gender structure of the family and children is not significant,and the number affecting the family economic decision-making is more on the quantity rather than the structural problems of the children.Probability score method,instrumental variable method and quantile regression method were used to test the robustness.Finally,a systematic study of the sources and expenditures of household income is carried out,and the heterogeneity of household consumption expenditure is analyzed.It is found that the expenditure on food,clothing,education,culture and medical insurance has increased significantly,indicating that the related industries The demand-pull effect will be more obvious.Roughly estimating the "two-child policy" will raise the level of household consumption by about 2.68%.This article provides a new theoretical support for the reform of the "two-child policy" through the study of sharing and support.It helps to study how families can share their old-age pension,reduce the burden on children and the aged,and weaken the negative impact caused by the lack of social pensions.Improve child welfare.The result of intergenerational influence on the family helps to study the changes in the family birth decision-making,the family pension and the pressure on social aging after the implementation of the "Two-child Policy," and the future development of China's pension insurance.The confirmation of "many children and more blessings"helps to study the family birth decision-making mechanism,encourage the birth of the second child,and adjust the internal structure of the family to solve the problem of social aging and raise the welfare level of the elderly after the implementation of the"two children policy.".In addition,the conclusion of this article is also helpful to study the changing trend of household savings and consumption after the "Two-child Policy" is implemented and to anticipate the stimulating effect on economic demand and provide some policy guidelines for public policymakers.