Research On The Relationship Between China's Tertiary Industry Structure And Employment Structure And Its Growth Potential

In today's world is not only developed countries(regions)economic growth has been steadily introduction stage,and the economy of developing countries,especially the high-speed economic growth in China has entered the stage.In recent years,the adjustment of industrial structure and employment structure in our country and the process of upgrading,development level and the level of the tertiary industry and its ability to absorb the laborer,gradually become one of the world to judge a country's industrial structure development key indicator of whether to conform to the trend of The Times.At the present stage,employment growth in China is seriously out of sync with economic growth.There is a huge gap between employment growth and economic growth in China.China is facing the dual problem of industrial structure adjustment and upgrading and employment structure adjustment and upgrading.Systematically study the output value of the tertiary industry in our country,and even the employment problem of the third industry in our country,find out the influence factors of hinder the development of the third industry development in our country,for our country government to develop the third industry of macroeconomic policy and other policies has very important practical significance and theoretical significance.From the overall logic,this paper is divided into 6 chapters.The main contents of each chapter are as follows:In chapter 1,the author begins to step in and follow up the research from the introduction.This paper gives a study on the industrial structure and employment structure of the tertiary industry by the famous economists and industrial structures.To research more scientific,more standardized,and in the subsequent chapters in this,the author also gives the need of the full paper is a very important concept is given,and is given in the form of "logic flow chart" the main logic of this thesis research framework.Finally,the author gives the main research method and the main data source.In chapter 2,the author mainly introduces and reviews the classical theories about the development of the third industry in the world,and analyzes and reviews the development process of industrial structure and employment structure.These theories and methods include the evolution of the industrial structure of Kuznets,the standard industrial model and theory of Hollis B.Chenery,and the "takeoff model" of Rostow.In addition,also introduced the William Arthur Lewis model of rural surplus labor transfer,Jorgenson labor mobility model,John fei-nice theory,and the most important classic Keynesian employment theory.Chapter 3,the author from two aspects,such as coordination and deviation of the index,respectively from different angles to analyze the output value of three times industry all kinds of relationship between structure and employment structure,including the related degree,harmonious relations and the degree of deviation.In the analysis of the employment elasticity of the tertiary industry in China,the coordination relationship between the output structure and the employment structure of China's tertiary industry is analyzed from the calculation of total employment elasticity and the employment elasticity of the tertiary industry.The employment structure and industrial structure of China's tertiary industry are analyzed by multiple linear regression method.The deviation degree of the employment structure of China's tertiary industry is analyzed by the deviation factor index.Chapter 4 is the author's scientific analysis of the potential of China's tertiary industry.In detail,the author applied descriptive statistics and inferential method of combining the application of Excel software,and social science statistical package SPSS 24.0,the added value of the tertiary industry in China and the Labor of more than 1200 original data to model calculation,through the establishment of principal component analysis model and clustering analysis model is established,the principal component analysis of China's tertiary industry growth potential of the equations.According to the coefficient of the system,the factors that affect the growth potential of China's tertiary industry are explained.Based on this,the author analyzes the potential of the third industry in China.Finally,based on the results of principal component analysis and cluster analysis,the author puts forward the forecast of the future growth of China's tertiary industry.In chapter 5,the author will according to China's statistics,in 2014 set up 30 provinces and autonomous regions in China,with the exception of data missing province economic development system and the coupling model of the third industry development system,to analyze our country in different parts of the economy system and the third industry is the coordinated development between and coordination degree.The results of the author's research show that the top three provinces with the highest coupling degree of tertiary industry development and economic development are Beijing,Guangdong province and Shanghai respectively.The three provinces with the lowest coupling are Gansu province,Qinghai province and Guizhou province.According to the criterion of coupling,China is in the stage of good coordinated development with Beijing and Guangdong province.The provinces in the intermediate stage of development are Shanghai,Jiangsu and Shandong.The province that is in the primary coordinated development has Zhejiang province and so on.Chapter 6 gives some Suggestions on how to improve the output value of China's tertiary industry,how to improve the employment proportion of China's tertiary industry,and how to improve the potential of China's tertiary industry.The three main countermeasures proposed by the author are as follows: first,to promote the healthy and rapid development of China's tertiary industry.First,establish and improve the market operation mechanism to inject market vitality into the development of tertiary industry;second,we need to change the internal structure of the tertiary industry and adjust the optimization policies of the service industry.Third,we need to accelerate the pace of urbanization to promote the development of tertiary industry.Second,the adjustment and optimization of the employment structure of China's tertiary industry.First,we need to coordinate the relationship between the tertiary industry structure and the employment structure.Secondly,it is necessary to strengthen vocational skills training to improve the quality of rural labor force.Third,we need to optimize the internal structure of the tertiary industry and enhance its ability to absorb employment.Third,according to the conclusion of the main component analysis in chapter 5,the countermeasures to improve the growth potential of China's tertiary industry are given.The research methods of this paper are: first,the analysis method combining descriptive statistics and inferential statistics.The result of this paper is the conclusion that the author applies Excel software and social science statistical software package SPSS 24.0,which is based on the statistical analysis of a large number of data.The second is the analysis method combining longitudinal analysis and horizontal analysis.The longitudinal analysis is presented in chapter 3,on the analysis of the dynamic trajectory of China's tertiary industry structure and employment structure.The horizontal analysis is shown in chapter 4,and the main component analysis and cluster analysis are selected in the 2016 China statistical yearbook with over 1200 data.The third is the combination of statistical tables and statistical graphs.A total of 71 statistical tables were used in this paper,and various statistical graphs were drawn using Excel software.In addition to the scientific nature of this paper,these statistical tables and statistical diagrams make this paper show the effect of the text.