Assessment Of Energy Consumption And Energy Saving Potential Of Clean Renewable Energy In Rural China

Energy is a kind of material resource,which is the basic guarantee of human survival and social and economic development.China is in the critical period of energy transformation.Rural energy has also received more attention at the national level.Agricultural and rural energy conservation has been listed as a key area of energy conservation and emission reduction during the 13th five-year plan period.Rural energy consumption is not only related to the quality of life of residents,but also related to energy transformation and the formulation and implementation of national energy policies.With the rapid development of rural economy,the characteristics of rural household energy have also changed greatly.However,the macro statistical data underestimates the rural energy consumption to some extent,so the expansion of the energy list is helpful for in-depth analysis of the evolution characteristics of rural energy.Under the background of China’s green and low-carbon energy transformation,onsidering the energy saving potential of CRE from the aspects of technical feasibility and resource endowment,simulating the future energy consumption and structural characteristics,and selecting examples to study the economic feasibility and related benefits of CRE can provide scientific basis for formulating rural energy development strategy and promoting the utilization of CRE.This thesis takes rural household energy consumption and CRE as the research objects,sustainable development theory,energy ladder and energy stacking,theory of exhaustible resources and alternative energy are introduced.At the macro level,we comprehensively grasp the data of energy types,quantity and equipment quantity in rural areas,point out the deficiencies of current statistical data,and add energy consumption data of solar energy,animal manure and micro-small power generation based on the summary of the existing research results.On this basis,the research systematically interprets the evolution characteristics of rural energy from four aspects of consumption,structure,attribute and pattern.In addition,we clarify the prominent problems of rural energy consumption and the significance of developing and utilizing CRE,so as to carry out research on the energy saving potential of CRE.Then the future rural energy consumption and energy structure changes under the two scenarios are predicted based on the energy saving and consumption.In the empirical part,efficiency and benefits are the indicators that directly reflect whether energy-using technologies have the potential for popularization.Thus,this thesis selects solar water heater as an example,obtains a large number of first-hand data through structured interviews and field observation,then studies the actual utilization efficiency of solar water heater from the perspective of residents’daily life,and analyzes the economic,environmental benefits and social impacts.We hope the study can provide some references for the utilization evaluation of other CRE.Based on above research,the conclusions are as follows:1.China’s rural energy consumption has shifted from a low-efficiency consumption mode which dominated by non-commodity energy and solid energy with very low development of CRE to a relatively more efficient consumption mode with a higher proportion of non-solid energy and relatively low proportion of clean energy in which commodity energy and non-commodity energy are basically parallel.Rural energy tends to be more efficient,cleaner,more renewable,more convenient and more diversified.However,there are still a lot of problems that need to be solved in rural energy consumption.Fortunately,the development of CRE can help rural energy transformation.(1)The comprehensive utilization efficiency of rural energy increases from 20.78percent in 1989 to 31.64 percent in 2016.At the same time,the consumption of high-quality energy,such as LPG,electricity and solar energy,has increased significantly,energy sources are becoming more diverse.(2)CRE is developing rapidly,inefficient and highly polluting biomass energy is no longer a major contributor to efficient energy consumption.From 1989 to 2016,the proportion of CRE in physical consumption increases from 0.33%to 10.04%.Although the directly used biomass energy accounts for more than 48%in physical consumption,the efficient consumption of fossil energy has exceeded the biomass energy since 2014,and the gap between CRE and biomass energy is also getting smaller and smaller.Rural energy consumption structure has undergone fundamental changes.(3)Changes in energy attributes show that rural energy is becoming cleaner,more convenient and more diverse.With the improvement of residents’income and living standards,people are more inclined to choose clean,convenient and flexibility energy,which is also more expensive.From 1989 to 2016,the economy of rural energy(unit energy expenditure)increases by 4.86 times,the cleanliness and convenience increase by 5.97 and 3.34 times respectively,and the flexibility increase by 1.85 times.(4)The pattern of energy consumption has shifted from the one dominated by solid energy and non-commodity energy to another in which the proportion of non-solid energy is higher and the commodity energy and non-commodity energy are basically parallel.In 1989,the solid energy and non-commercial energy,accounted for98.82%and 75.4%of the physical energy consumption respectively.In 28 years,the proportion of non-solid energy consumption has increased from 1.18%to 34.15%,and that of commodity energy consumption has risen from 24%to 45%.(5)Problems restrict the healthy development of rural energy,such as poor taste of rural dominant energy,low energy efficiency,unreasonable energy structure,serious waste of biomass energy and weak ability of socialized energy service.The development and utilization of CRE and the establishment and improvement of a rural energy service system can help rural energy out of the current dilemma,then promote the transformation of the rural energy system and the building of a new ecological countryside.2.Solar energy,biogas,and micro-small scale power generation are more applicable in rural areas than in densely populated cities,and have great potential for energy conservation.However,there is still a big gap between the energy saving potential of CRE and the predicted future value in terms of energy quantity and proportion.It is still necessary to strengthen the construction of CRE facilities and promote the optimization and upgrading of the structure of rural energy.(1)The total energy saving potential of rural CRE by 2020 is 32.31 Mtce,which is about 10.61%of the projected energy consumption in 2020,without considering the connected CRE power.The energy saving potential of solar energy,biogas and micro-small power generation are 9.113 Mtce,23.11Mtce and 0.088 Mtce,respectively.In solar energy,the current research has not fully considered the particularity of"not applicable in cold winter"of a solar water heater,and thus overestimated its energy-saving effect to some extent.In terms of biogas,household biogas and large and medium-sized biogas have the same energy saving potential in per effective pool capacity.However,due to the outflow of labor force and the shortage of raw materials,the development of household biogas is in poor condition.On the contrary,the large and medium-sized biogas centralized gas supply project is the key field of biogas development in the future.Among micro-small power generations,only small photovoltaic power generation has achieved good development,while micro hydropower and small wind power lack top-level design and have poor development prospects.(2)The continuous reduction of rural energy consumption is an inevitable result of urbanization development.According to the GM(1,1)model,rural energy consumption will fall to 272.6818 Mtce by 2030.But the share of CRE has risen sharply.The Markov chain predicts that rural CRE will account for 20.65 percent of physical energy consumption by 2030,which is about 56.07 Mtce.Compared with the energy saving potential of CRE in 2020,there is still a gap of 23.76 Mtce.So we still need to continue to strengthen energy infrastructure over the next decade.At the same time,we need to strengthen publicity,enhance awareness of the use of CRE,and improve the optimization and upgrading of rural energy consumption.3.Based on the field survey,the evaluation result shows that the effective utilization efficiency of solar water heater in the research area is only about 1/3 of the theoretical conversion efficiency,and there is a huge space for the expansion of hot water consumption.When solar water heater is used to provide hot water instead of other fuels,the results show that the economic benefits of a solar water heater is not obvious,but the environmental benefits and social impacts are significant.(1)The theoretical heat of the solar water heater is 3661.7 MJ during 263 days.The actual used heat is 1168.6 MJ.Thus,the actual efficiency of solar water heater is only 12.77%,which is about one third of the theoretical thermal efficiency(40%),and two-thirds of the unused heat is still available to serve residents.Meanwhile,the application penetration rate of water heater in the region is only 123.86 m~2/thousand people,which is far lower than our national average level(337 m~2/thousand people).The potential for diffusion water heaters in the study area is still enormous.(2)In practice,the economic benefit of solar water heater is not high,but the environmental benefit is obvious and the social influence is significant.During its life cycle,a solar water heater can reduce carbon emissions by 1.83~7.89t,its annual reduction in carbon emissions is comparable to that of passenger cars travelling between 1,068 and 4,550 km.When it is installed in a large area,it can greatly reduce the pressure of environmental pollution.It has also changed the personal hygiene habits and indoor living environment,and spread the concept of energy-saving,environmental protection and low-carbon life to a certain extent.(3)According to the actual usage,some suggestions are put forward for improving efficiency and the popularization of solar water heater.Firstly,changing water usage habits in daily life can improve the efficiency of solar water heater.Secondly,residents should choose the equipment with appropriate cistern capacity according to family size.Thirdly,governments should also provide subsidies to residents in return for the environmental benefits.Based on the above research conclusions,this thesis gives some suggestions on the development and utilization of CRE.In order to promote the development of rural energy towards low-carbon,efficient,clean and sustainable direction,Government and people need to develop CRE sources with low costs in line with local conditions,build multi-energy and complementary energy systems,and accelerate the progress and spread of energy technologies.