| The scale of pig breeding is becoming the main trend of the development of pig industry in China.While alleviating the growing demand for pork in urban and rural areas,it is also faced with increasing environmental pressure,tightening resource constraints,increasing international competition,persisting epidemic risks,relatively significant market fluctuation,low efficiency of breeding,small scale of farming and other issues and challenges.In view of the above problems and challenges,scholars and current policies indicate that in the future development of China's pig breeding,moderate scale breeding should be explored.The "moderate breeding scale" of pig is a dynamic value,and in different regions and development periods and for different major breeding bodies,it should be changed according to the changes of subjective and objective conditions.Exploring moderate scale breeding is virtually to discuss the breeding scale decisions of pig-breeders.On account that pig-breeders are bounded rational "economic man",it is needed to discuss whether it requires a modest scale of farming,proper breeding scale interval,moderate scale breeding decision-making and its influencing factors on the basis of assumptions of bounded rationality,independent decision-making and target diversity.The research of this paper has important theoretical and practical significance.In this paper,this study selects pig-breeders of Sichuan province,a primary pig breeding province in China,as the research object.Based on the behavior decision theory,bounded rationality theory,economies of scale and environmental economics and the current background of the implementation of strict environmental regulations,this study conducts a theoretical analysis of the need for moderate scale breeding,length of the moderate scale breeding interval,factors affecting pig-breeders' decision-making for moderate scale breeding and how pig-breeders make decisions for moderate scale breeding under the environmental regulation and constructs a theoretical framework of "moderate scale breeding identification-moderate scale breeding measurement-influencing factors of decision-making for moderate scale breeding-moderate scale breeding.Ultimately,this study proposes hypotheses that pig-breeders' moderate breeding scale range will shrink under the background of the current environmental regulation,that decision-making formoderate scale breeding is influenced by both non-environmental regulatory factors and environmental regulatory factors and its interactive multiple factors.What's more,based on the review of the status quo of pig breeding in Sichuan province,using questionnaire survey data of 709 pig-breeders and adopting C-D production function and objective function,this study is intended to investigate the reward obtained by pig-breeders from economies of scale of pig breeding in Sichuan province,and to identify whether pig-breeders need to perform moderate scale breeding,and to measure the moderate breeding scale from the perspectives of economy,ecology and so on.Furthermore,by using the questionnaire survey data of pig-breeders,econometric methods including Probit and Logit models are respectively applied to verify impacts of the non-environmental regulatory factors(such as economic benefits,live pig policies,live pig prices,industrial organizations,risk attitudes and technical level)and environmental regulatory factors(pressure over pollution control)on pig-breeders' decision-making for moderate scale breeding,which is aimed at testing the hypothesis.Finally,three types of pig-breeders are selected from three different regions of Sichuan province,and case study method is used to analyze pig-breeders' decision-making for moderate scale breeding and the corresponding influencing factors before and after the implementation of environmental regulation at the micro level,and to prove the above conclusions.Main research content and conclusions are as follows:(1)Measuring and evaluating the moderate breeding scale of pig-breedersConclusion 1: Moderate scale breeding of pigs is needed in Sichuan province.There are significant differences in the moderate breeding scales obtained from multiple perspectives.Small-medium scale is the moderate breeding scale.Pollution control cost has become an important constraint for the breeding scale.Pig-breeders expect the breeding scale to be small and medium.Provided that the cost of pollution control is considered,it is found that the average breeding cost will rise from 732,500 yuan to782,400 yuan in 2015,and that the average profit will be reduced from 244,900 yuan to194,600 yuan.Empirical research shows that pig breeding in Sichuan province is characterized by decreasing returns to scale,and it is at the stage of no economies of scale,indicating that moderate scale breeding is required.From the perspective of themaximization of farmer's breeding profit,the range of moderate breeding scale of pigs is from 650 to 800,500-653 in hilly areas and 600-700 in plain areas,all of which belong to the medium scale;From the dimension of internalization of pollution control cost,the range of moderate breeding scale of pigs is from 55 to 75,36-75 in hilly areas and 40-60 in plain areas,all of which belong to small scale;From the perspective of the pollution absorbing ability of land,the range of moderate breeding scale of pigs is from 30 to 41,which belongs to the small scale.The above results answer questions regarding whether pig-breeders need modest scale breeding and what the moderate breeding scale is.Besides,results also confirm the research hypothesis that pig-breeders' moderate breeding scale range will shrink under the background of the current environmental regulation.(2)Determinants of pig-breeders' decision-making for moderate scale breeding of pigsConclusion 2: There are differences in pig-breeders' risk attitudes,technical level and pollution control pressure.Moreover,the risk attitude,technical level,pressure over pollution control and other relevant variables have significant influences on the decision-making for moderate scale breeding.Most pig-breeders are risk-averse,who are very afraid of the occurrence of various risks.There is much difference in their mastery of breeding techniques or skills,but they can deliver much help to pig breeding,most of whom adopt the mode of combination of planting and breeding.Although it is not difficult to dispose of pollutants,there is much pressure on observing environmental rules.Empirical research shows that the risk attitude,technical level,pollution control pressure and specific pig price fluctuation risk,breeding technology risk,disease prevention and control technology(reasonable medication),rapid fattening technology,inspection from environmental protection departments,cognition for laws and regulations of environmental protection,whether separating the dry from the wet and whether including the biogas variable have significant impacts on the decision-making for moderate scale breeding.However,whether providing feeder by themselves,feed selection and matching technology and whether selling wastes have negative impacts on the decision-making for moderate scale breeding.Conclusion 3: Pig-breeders' decision-making for moderate scale breeding is acomprehensive consideration of multiple factors,significantly influenced by various factors and their interactive force.Pig-breeders are somewhat blind and pessimistic in the process of making decisions for breeding pigs,and obtaining profits is their primary motivation.Lack of capital is one of the factors that limit the scale of pig breeding.Technical level,pollution control pressure,risk attitude,pig price,economic benefits,pig policies and industrial organizations are the main considered factors for pig-breeders to adjust the breeding scale.Empirical study shows that the economic efficiency,policy subsidy,industrial organization and the expected price of pigs have significantly positive effects on the decision-making behaviors of pig-breeders regarding the moderate scale breeding.Current price of live pigs has a negative impact on the decision-making behaviors of pig-breeders regarding the moderate scale breeding,which is also impacted by the interactive force of the above variables,risk attitude,technical level and pollution control pressure.The above results answer the question about the factors that affect pig-breeders' decision-making behaviors regarding the moderate scale breeding,and substantiate the research hypothesis that decision-making for moderate scale breeding is influenced by both non-environmental regulatory factors and environmental regulatory ones.(3)Case study of pig-breeders' decision-making for moderate scale breedingConclusion 4: There are significant changes in pig-breeders' decision-making for moderate scale breeding before and after the implementation of environmental regulations.And there are significant differences in cognition for scale breeding of pigs,evaluation of the moderate breeding scale,and the influencing factors of the decision-making for moderate scale breeding.Case analysis shows that there are obvious differences in the decision-making behaviors of different types of pig-breeders regarding the breeding scale before the implementation of strict environmental regulations,and the factors influencing their decision-making behaviors are also different.After the implementation of environmental regulations,pig-breeders face greater pressure on pollution control,which prevents them from expanding the breeding scale.The decision-making for the breeding scale of pigs is mainly comprehensively decided by the pig manure,urine,sewage and other waste pollution treatment capacity,management costs and processing facilities.Pig-breeders are different in the breeding targets,the degree of participating in the industrial organization,the amount of pig subsidies granted,evaluation of live pig price,breeding technology level or skills,feeding risk preference and pollution control capacity,resulting in their significant distinction of pig breeding awareness,evaluation of moderate breeding scale and influencing factors of the decision-making for moderate scale breeding.The above results answer the question about how to make decisions for moderate scale breeding under the environmental regulation.Innovation of this paper is shown in the following three aspects:(1)The environmental regulatory factors are included in the analysis framework of pig-breeders' decision-making for the moderate scale breeding.Based on the perspective of environmental regulation,through the integration of bounded rational theory,behavior decision theory,theory of economies of scale,theory of environmental economics and theory of environmental regulation,from the perspectives of environmental regulatory factors and non-environmental regulatory factors,an analysis framework of pig-breeders' decision-making for the moderate scale breeding is systematically constructed,with non-environmental regulatory factors and environmental regulatory factors influencing pig-breeders' decision-making for moderate scale breeding put forward,and the theoretical system of decision-making for pig breeding improved.It breaks through the limitations of too much existing research about the influence of non-environmental regulation factors on pig scale breeding have been studied and the impacts of environmental regulation on pig breeding at the macro level have been studied.(2)The moderate breeding scale of pigs is measured from the economic perspective,ecological perspective and other perspectives.And the theory of economies of scale is introduced into the research on pig-breeders' decision-making for moderate scale breeding of pigs,which expands the application scope of it.Moreover,the moderate breeding scale of pig-breeders is measured from the perspectives of the breeding profit,pollution control cost and land absorption,which avoids the limitation of measurement from a single perspective and thus improves the reliability of the measurement,breaking through the measurement limitations of extant research focusing on the economic efficiency evaluation and production efficiency,and leading to the scientific and guiding values of pig-breeders' decision-making for the moderate scale breeding.(3)An empirical study on the determinants of the decision-making for the moderate scale breeding is conducted.Technology gap theory is included in the research on the decision-making for the moderate scale breeding,which expands the application range of it,and validates the validity of technical level,pollution control pressure,risk attitude,live pig price,economic benefit,pig policy,industrial organization and other relevant variables in pig-breeders' decision-making for the moderate scale breeding.It is found that pig-breeders' decision-making for the moderate scale breeding is mainly based on the expected price of live pigs rather than the current price,which is inconsistent with the cobweb theory.In addition to the market price risk,it is shown that pollution control pressure,the breeding technology risk,the gap of technical level,the level of disease prevention and control technology(appropriate use of drugs)and rapid fattening technology level are propelling factors for pig-breeders to choose moderate scale breeding,and feeder selection and matching technology and waste to sell are prohibiting factors,which enriches the research conclusions of the decision-making for pig breeding and complements shortcomings of existing research on the specific technical level,specific breeding risk and pollution control pressure at the micro level. |
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