Spatial Pattern Evolution And Simulation Of Rural Settlements In The Process Of Urbanization

The population,economy,and structure of land use in rural areas of China are undergoing unprecedented changes in the process of urbanization.As the source of contradictions in the man–land relationship,the spatial patterns of rural settlements are constantly evolving.Rural settlements are influenced by many factors,causing unstable spatial patterns,such as unlimited sprawl,hollow villages,and complex shapes emerging one after the other,which bring severe challenges to the coordinated development of urban and rural areas in the process of urbanization.Therefore,studying the internal evolution characteristics of rural settlements,mastering its evolution mechanism,predicting its evolution trend,and realizing scientific classification regulations are significant for the layout of rural settlements,land space optimization,and the theoretical system of urbanization.The study sites of this research are four counties in Henan,China,undergoing the different rates of urbanization: Xinzheng,undergoing rapid urbanization;Wenxian,undergoing moderate urbanization;Xihua,located in the plains,undergoing slow urbanization;and Guanshan,located in a hilly area,undergoing slow urbanization.The study collected multitemporal and multispectral remote sensing images and digital evaluation model,statistical,and survey data as its base data sources.This study utilized the geographical information system and FRAGSTAT spatial analysis technologies to analyze the spatial evolving characteristics,spatial heterogeneity of the driving forces,and spatial patterns of three scenarios and to optimization the spatial patterns of rural settlements.The main contents and results of this study are as follows:(1)The spatial patterns of rural settlements and their evolving trends vary under different urbanization processes.For the past 35 years,the spatial patterns of rural settlements in counties undergoing rapid urbanization have evolved the quickest,whereas spatial patterns have evolved less quickly in counties undergoing slow urbanization and slowest in counties undergoing medium urbanization.The spatial patterns of rural settlements undergoing rapid urbanization have shown an unstable trend with the rapid increase of total areas(33.4%)and complex shapes(with an increase of 12.2%),whereas the spatial pattern of rural settlements undergoing slow urbanization have shown a more stable trend with a slower change of total areas and more regular shapes.Moreover,the spatial patterns of rural settlements undergoing medium urbanization have shown the most stable trend with a slow increase of total areas(4.7%)and regular shapes.Aerial views of the counties have shown that the rural settlements in each county aggregated around the county and town centers and transportation junctions.The rural settlements around the counties have shown a high–high aggregation pattern,with the continuous strengthening of trends.(2)The influence factors in the evolution of rural settlements show spatial heterogeneity.This study analyzed the influence factors of rural settlements globally and locally by building local,linear,geographically-weighted regression models of the counties in 1980 and in 2015.The models clearly showed the influence factors in the spatial heterogeneity.On the basis of this driving theory,the spatial evolving models of the rural settlements were constructed.Results deduce that the spatial patterns of the rural settlements are influenced by geomorphic characteristics and transportation factors and that transportation factors became stronger in counties that underwent rapid and medium urbanization in 2015.Social economic factors only influenced the county located in the hilly area,undergoing slow urbanization.The impact strength showed spatial non-stationary among the counties;thus,rural settlement planning should be treated differently.(3)The simulation results of the patterns of rural settlements in the next 20 years infer that spatial patterns evolve smoothly under the natural development scenario and dramatically under the development scenarios of government planning and ecological protection.A Dyna-CLUE model was constructed to simulate the spatial patterns of the rural settlements in each county 20 years into the future.The model predicted and analyzed the evolving trends in the spatial patterns of the rural settlements in a free development scenario,a government planning scenario,and an ecological protection scenario.In the free development scenario,the spatial patterns of the rural settlements in each county are in accordance with the current evolving trend.The evolving trend of spatial patterns is slow for rural settlements in counties undergoing rapid and medium urbanization.Furthermore,the total scale of the rural settlements changes slowly,and the shapes become complex.The spatial patterns of settlements in counties undergoing slow urbanization evolve rapidly;their scale changes faster,and the shapes become more regular.The total scale of the rural settlements in the county located in the plains,undergoing slow urbanization,is decreasing,but the total scale of the rural settlements in the county located in the hilly area,undergoing slow urbanization,is increasing.The rural settlements in most counties aggregated around the county and town centers,except in the county located in the plains,undergoing slow urbanization,wherein the rural settlements aggregated only around the county center.In government planning and ecological protection scenarios,the total rural settlement scale in all the counties decreased significantly,and the shapes were regular.The rural settlements aggregated around county centers under the government planning scenario but aggregated around town centers,rivers,and main traffic lines under the ecological protection scenario.(4)The willingness of farmers to quit their vacant residential land varied among the different types of farmers.The farmers' willingness was significantly influenced by land-use policies,rural residential environments,their awareness of the consequences of such transformation,household income,family size,and the characteristics of their vacant residential land.The farmers were classified into three types: farmers who lived entirely on farming;farmers who lived partially on farming;and farmers who stopped farming completely during the urbanization process.Correlational and path analyses were conducted to study the key factors that influenced the willingness of farmers to quit their vacant residential land.The direct and indirect factors affecting the willingness of the three types of farmers were clearly determined.The results confirmed that approximately 50% of the farmers were willing to ultimately quit their vacant residential land.The residential land-use policies,household income,their awareness of the consequences of such transformation,the length of vacancy time of the residential land,and the number of vacant residential plots had positive influences on the farmers' willingness.Family size and rural residential environments had negative influences on the farmers' willingness.However,these factors varied among the different types of farmers,which indicates that strengthening the publicity of the residential land-use policies and protecting farmers' interests according to their farmer classification types could enhance their willingness and ensure the implementation of the rural settlements' control.(5)The suitability-endogenous driving classified regulatory evaluation index system was constructed and optimization suggestion of spatial pattern of rural settlments was put forword.The evaluation index system integrated the characteristic of the spatial suitability,the farmers' willingness,and the rural settlements and evaluated the rural settlements' level of planning and control from two aspects: the spatial suitability and the internal driving forces.The results corroborate that the study areas could be classified into highly suitable,suitable,low-suitable,and not suitable according to the spatial suitability evaluation.The rural settlements that combined the endogenous driving forces were classified into four classes: priority consolidation,special consolidation,apposite consolidation,and direct conversion.The corresponding ratios are 15.15%,69.69%,12.12%,and 3.03%,respectively.Based on this,the paper puts forward suggestions of making reasonable optimization goals,adjusting measures to local conditions and gradually guiding to realize of spatial pattern optimization of rural settlements.