| Currently,urban agglomerations have become a powerful growth pole for national or regional economic development.Scientific transportation planning is the prerequisite and impetus for maintaining the rapid,stable and healthy development of urban agglomerations.As the most basic and important supporting research content of traffic planning,demand analysis is an effective way to reflect the characteristics of traffic demand,and also provides important basic data for subsequent traffic construction timing research.Meanwhile,compared with the urban traffic demand,the inter-city travel demand of the urban agglomerations has its own characteristics,and is influenced by the difference of development level,spatial development pattern,resource space allocation,geographical and cultural environment,etc.Therefore,referring to domestic and foreign scholars' research results,based on analyzing the spatial pattern of domestic urban agglomerations and its impact on traffic demand characteristics,a quantitative analysis method is proposed to apply the radiation model and kriging interpolation to the spatial dimension characteristics of intercity travel demand in "single-core" and"multi-core" urban agglomerations.On this basis,in order to realize the application of traffic demand to guide the application of traffic construction,this paper presents a research method for route planning time series of traffic planning based on the results of demand analysis.Fristly,in order to analyze the difference of spatial pattern of urban agglomerations,6 typical urban agglomerations in China are selected as examples.Through the analysis of statistical data in 2015,the development stage of each urban agglormeration is preliminarily grasped.Based on extracted the nighttime light image data to urban areas,the extraction results of 1995,2000,2005,2010 and 2015 are analyzed by superposition visual analysis and quantitative analysis of landscape pattern index.And then the evolution and expansion of the spatial pattern of typical urban agglomeration are formed.Based on the quantitative indicators of landscape pattern,the criteria for determining the spatial pattern of "single-core" and "multi-core" urban agglomerations are obtained.Next,based on the theories of economics and system science,this paper qualitatively analyzes the influence mechanism of urban agglomeration spatial pattern on intercity travel demand.And from the factors that cause the spatial pattern difference of Urban Agglomerations-the resource advantage and the per capita resource occupancy rate,the qualitative analysis of the difference effect of spatial pattern on the characteristics of the intercity travel demand of urban agglomerations.In addition,the influence of resource advantage and per capita resource occupancy on the individual behavior of different urban agglomeration is proposed,and the difference of spatial distribution characteristics of passenger transport demand is also discussed.The analysis results provide support for the follow-up analysis of the characteristics of inter-city travel demand of "single-core" and "multi-core" urban agglomerations.Secondly,According to the qualitative analysis of the influence of the spatial pattern of the urban agglomeration on the passenger transport demand characteristics,this paper takes the population representation of the regional development level,the demand intensity and the demand attraction intensity in each area of the "single core"urban agglomeration,and proposes a feature analysis method based on radiation model and Kriging spatial interpolation.According to the construction goal of the model,the variables mi,nj and sij of radiation model are reassigned to the physical meaning,and the workflow of obtaining and processing the model variables is formed.After that,taking the Wuhan city circle as an example to verify the validity of the model,this paper obtains the spatial distribution characteristics of the intercity travel demand according to the spatial interpolation results,and puts forward the rationalization proposals for the development of the traffic planning according to the characteristics.Thirdly,through qualitative analysis of the influence of the spatial pattern of the urban agglomeration on the passenger demand characteristics,different from"single-core" urban agglomerations,there are two or more core regions in "multi-core"urban agglomerations,which make it more complex for the characteristics of inter-city travel demand.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the radiation model as follows:one side,the regional development level M,demand intensity P and demand attraction intensity A are taken as the restrictive variables of the model.On the other hand,according to the theory and method of fracture arc,variable M is used as the weight to distinguish the strong and weak influence areas.After that,taking Chengdu-Chongqing City Group as an example,the improved model is solved and validated.The research results can be a scientific reference for traffic planning.Finally,in order to promote the traffic planning with the results of demand analysis,a method based on improved flow interdiction model is proposed for analyzing the construction sequence of traffic planning lines.The method analyzes the contribution of planning lines to the overall transport capacity of the network from two aspects:network topology and line traffic volume.After that,taking the inter-city railway planning lines of Chengdu Chongqing City Group in 2015?2020 as an example,considering the 2 conditions of single and multiple planning lines,planning lines on existing road network and future planning and building road network,four scenarios are set for analysis and solution,and the conclusion of construction time series is given through multi scene results,so as to provide scientific and orderly support for the scientific and orderly development of traffic construction work. |
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