Research On Risk Management Of Electricity Operation Models And Information System In Smart Grid

With the increasing demand for energy saving and emission reduction in society,as a clean energy source,electricity is regarded as an important energy supply method to promote energy conservation and emission reduction.The electricity operation is regarded as the key link in the process of green energy use because it directly targets energy users.Starting from the risk dynamics,this paper adopts risk element transfer theory to study risk modeling of electricity operation in the smart grid environment,and the paper studies the risk transfer mechanism of key links in electricity operation.In this context,the article conducts research and analysis in accordance with the three links of power generation,power supply and electricity use.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Constructed an evaluation model for the transmission of meta-event impacts on the power generation side in consideration of new energy generation in the smart grid environment.In view of the new energy sources currently represented by wind power and photovoltaics,the impact of their access to the power grid is analyzed from four aspects of power quality,energy peaking,grid security control.the corresponding impact index system and hierarchical risk element impact transfer model have been established.Integrated intuitionistic fuzzy set and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)are used to analyze the risk impact of electricity operation on the power generation side in the smart grid environment.The calculation results are given by examples and the effectiveness of the model is proved.(2)Constructed the calculation method of the risk element transfer model for smart grid investment projects,and proposed a investment project risk transfer calculation method based on neural network.When the neural network weights are optimized,this method introduces particle swarm optimization to optimize the weights and gives a specific case study.(3)Constructed a profit transmission risk meta-transfer model under the situation of the time-of-use price under the smart grid.Based on the peak-to-trough time sharing of electricity prices,the electricity operation will most likely be affected by the risk of demand-side electricity consumption.With the principle of system dynamics,this paper constructs a network model that considers the time-to-price electricity price and the demand-side response profit distribution risk element impact transmission.Finally,a profit distribution result and a risk transfer analysis are given in combination with an example.Gives grid companies marketing advice in a new environment.(4)Analyzed the risk of operational impact on grid companies that integrates big data and cloud computing in a smart grid environment.By integrating existing power data resources,a virtual data warehouse for decision support of electricity operation has been established.With the integration and use of multi-dimensional data processing modeling methods,analysis methods,the grid company's marketing service capabilities can be improved.On the basis of big data,the user clustering and the user load curve prediction model with meteorological data impact are constructed.Finally,the electricity operation risk management information system in the smart grid environment is designed.This paper is not only a supplement to the theory of electricity operation risk management under the smart grid,but also an exploration of the risk element transmission research.It also provides theoretical basis for risk management of smart grid construction in China.