| Land use change has a significant impact on the structure and function of ecosystems.As human activity intenstifies,ecological problems are increasingly serious,and the imbalance between economic development and ecological environmental conservation has become gradually prominent.In this context,Anhui province was selected as the study area for this research.Firstly,the characteristics and driving forces of land use dynamic changes from 1995 to 2018 were systematically analyzed;secondly,a modified evaluation model was used to estimate and characterize the spatio-temporal differentiation of ecosystem service value(ESV);thirdly,the future land use layout under ecological constraints was simulated;and finally,the priorities and compensation standards for ecological compensation of 16 cities in Anhui province were calculated by constructing a multiple value theory system.The main research results and conclusions are as follows:(1)From multi-temporal remote sensing image data(1995-2018),the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving force of land use change in Anhui province were analyzed.All the overall accuracies were above 85%,and all the Kappa coefficients were greater than 0.80.The land use classification maps show that the main land use types of Anhui province were paddy field and unirrigated field,each accounting for over 25%of the total area.The comprehensive index of the land use degree continued to increase.The conversion of paddy field and unirrigated field to built-up land was the most important land use conversion type in Anhui province from1995 to 2018.Economy,technology,and population are the dominant factors driving land use change.The effects of paddy field,unirrigated field,and built-up land on the principal component scores were all significant at 0.05 level.The principal component score was negatively correlated with cultivated land but positively with built-up land.(2)The total ESV of Anhui province from 1995 to 2018 was estimated using the modified estimation model based on spatial heterogeneity.In the past 23 years,the value has decreased by 225.41×10~5 Yuan with a change rate of-0.75%.Water area had the highest ESV,accounting for approximately 40%of the total ESV.The high-ESV areas were distributed in south-central Anhui and concentrated along lakes and rivers,while the low-ESV areas were observed in northern Huaihe River,presenting a clear clustering pattern.(3)The future ESVs of Anhui province were estimated based on the simulation of land use layout of Anhui Province in 2025 and 2030.The grey prediction model has a higher accuracy in predicting land use demand in Anhui.The overall accuracy of land use layout simulation based on the Geo SOS-FLUS model was 91.75%,and the Kappa coefficient was 0.89.The ecological constraints were determined using the ESV estimation results,and an ecological optimization scenario for land use change was constructed to simulate the land use spatial layout in 2025 and 2030.On this basis,the ESV of Anhui Province in 2025 and 2030 were estimated,and the results show that the future ESVs will show an increasing trend.(4)The multiple value theory system of ESV was constructed to determine the scope of ecological compensation in Anhui,and the ecological compensation priorities and standards were calculated.The coordination between ecological environment and economic development were relatively high in the southwestern and southern cities but relatively low in Hefei and the cities in north Huaihe River were.Huangshan and Chizhou are characterized by the highest ecological compensation priority,and Huaibei by the lowest.The highest value of ecological compensation standard was in Anqing,which decreased from 313634.15×10~5 Yuan in 2000 to 35174.16×10~5 Yuan in 2030while the lowest value was in Huaibei,which decreased from 1672.14×10~5 Yuan in2000 to 110.48×10~5 Yuan in 2030.There are 40 figures,70 tables,and 309 references in this thesis. |
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