The Impact Mechanism Of Tourism Destination Vulnerability On Tourism Emergencies

Safety is an important basis for tourism development.The occurrence of tourism emergencies on a large scale seriously affects the psychology and behavior of tourists and disturbs the healthy development of tourism.Therefore,how to prevent tourism emergencies from the source has become a topic of both theoretical and practical significance.The vulnerability of tourism destinations is a potential cause of tourism emergencies,but the relationship between the two is lack of empirical evidence.This paper explores and analyzes the relationship between the vulnerability of tourism destinations and the impact of tourism emergencies from the theoretical and empirical perspectives,provides a new perspective for the governance of vulnerability of tourism destinations and the research on the formation mechanism of tourism emergencies,and is conducive to the scientific understanding of the formation rules of tourism emergencies at the provincial scale.At the same time,it also provides empirical evidence for the vulnerability control and tourism emergency control of tourism destinations in the province of China,which has strong theoretical exploration significance and application value.This study mainly focuses on the relationship structure and governance of "tourism destination vulnerability-tourism emergency".Based on the theory of vulnerability,system theory and accident cause theory,this paper analyzes the theoretical relationship between tourism destination vulnerability and tourism emergency.On this basis,the research constructs the evaluation index system of tourism destination vulnerability and emergency,and based on our country’s 31 provincial tourist destination(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan),2011-2017 panel data,analyzes the temporal evolution and spatial distribution characteristics of the two,explored the tourism destination vulnerability directly effect on the tourism events and the heterogeneity of threshold effect and influence,at the same time the influence of the eastern,central and western three regional difference is analyzed.The following conclusions are drawn:(1)the distribution characteristics of vulnerability of tourism destinations inChina.Refine this study will travel destination vulnerability to economic subsystem,social subsystem and environment subsystem vulnerability,and from the exposure,the sensitivity and adaptability of three dimensions on system vulnerability evaluation,construct including subsystems of "overall vulnerability-vulnerability-dimensions-index factor" from four aspects,23 indicators,vulnerability evaluation index system of tourism destination.The results of empirical evaluation show that the vulnerability of tourism destinations in China has been decreasing year by year.From the perspective of spatial characteristics,the distribution of overall vulnerability and subsystem vulnerability basically follows the law of successively increasing from east to west.From the perspective of spatial difference,the spatial difference of overall vulnerability and subsystem vulnerability is relatively small,among which the spatial difference of environmental vulnerability is the largest.(2)the distribution characteristics of tourism emergencies in China.The scale and severity of tourism emergencies are calculated,and the results show that the scale and severity of China’s tourism emergencies generally show a downward trend.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the scale of tourism emergencies is basically the highest in the eastern region,the second in the western region and the lowest in the central region.The severity of tourism emergencies is basically the highest in the western region,the second in the eastern region and the lowest in the central region.From the perspective of spatial difference,the scale and severity of tourism emergencies in the high-value region and the low-value region vary greatly,and the spatial difference is large.(3)the direct effect of tourism destination vulnerability on tourism emergencies.Social vulnerability has the greatest impact on the scale and severity of tourism emergencies,followed by economic vulnerability and environmental vulnerability.The impact coefficient of vulnerability on the severity of tourism emergencies is higher than that on the scale.Tourism emergencies in the eastern and western regions are significantly affected by vulnerability,while tourism emergencies in the central region are less affected by vulnerability.(4)the threshold effect of the vulnerability of tourism destinations on the impact of tourism emergencies.The test analysis of threshold effect shows that with theincrease of the overall vulnerability,economic vulnerability and social vulnerability of tourism destinations,the impact effect on the scale and severity of tourism emergencies increases first and then decreases,and so does the variation rule of regional impact effect.With the development of static tourism,the impact of overall vulnerability,economic vulnerability and social vulnerability on the scale and severity of tourism emergencies decreases.With the improvement of the development level of static tourism,the influence of vulnerability in the eastern region decreases,the influence of vulnerability in the central region increases first and then decreases,and the influence of vulnerability in the western region increases.With the development of dynamic tourism,the impact of overall vulnerability,economic vulnerability and social vulnerability on the severity of tourism emergencies increases first and then decreases.The law of influence in the eastern and central regions is similar to that in the whole country,and the opposite is true in the western regions.(5)heterogeneous influence of tourism destination vulnerability on unbalanced tourism emergencies: the results of quantile regression analysis show that in most cases,the higher the scale and severity of tourism emergencies,the greater the impact of vulnerability.At different scales of tourism emergencies,the influences of social vulnerability,environmental vulnerability and economic vulnerability are successively reduced.At different severity levels of tourism emergencies,the influences of social vulnerability,economic vulnerability and environmental vulnerability were successively reduced.On the whole,social vulnerability is the most important factor in the scale and severity of tourism emergencies.When the scale and severity of tourism emergencies in the eastern and central regions are at a medium or low level,the social vulnerability is dominant;when the scale of tourism emergencies is at a high level,the economic vulnerability is dominant.In the western region,the impact of social vulnerability always dominates under different levels of tourism emergency severity.The innovation and contribution of this research are as follows: firstly,the vulnerability evaluation system of tourism destination is constructed;Second,it examines the prediction effect of vulnerability of tourism destinations on tourism emergencies,clarifies the occurrence conditions and rules of the impact ofvulnerability of tourism destinations on tourism emergencies,and has a more essential understanding of the inherent factors and function logic of tourism emergencies.Thirdly,the paper investigates the threshold function of tourism development level in the relationship between tourism destination vulnerability and tourism emergency,and has a deeper understanding of the relationship structure between tourism destination vulnerability and tourism emergency.This study suggests that China’s tourism destinations should establish a vulnerability governance system,improve the quality of tourism development,and improve the level of management and control of tourism emergencies.The practical strategies include: establishing the idea of systematic and coordinated vulnerability governance;Build a differentiated vulnerability governance system based on tourism emergency level;Balance tourism development level and growth rate,improve the quality of tourism development.