Research On The Influence And Optimazation Of Energy Structure Changes On Carbon Intensity Of Hebei Province

Energy conservation and emission reduction as well as the acceleration of green and low-carbon development are important contents of the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,as well as an important breakthrough to further improve the quality of economic growth and achieve economic transformation in Hebei province.There are many ways to save energy and reduce emissions,among which,energy structure optimization is one of the most direct and effective means,and also a key measure to promote the benign interaction between industry and energy.Hebei province has clearly proposed the carbon intensity target and the energy structure optimization target.Whether the energy structure optimization can achieve the carbon intensity target is an urgent question to be answered.This paper,from the overall energy structure and internal energy structure two aspects,discusses the influence on the carbon intensity that energy structure change exerts,evaluates the potential contribution to achieving carbon intensity energy structure optimization brings based on sensitivity analysis,and designs a low carbon energy structure optimization scheme targeting energy conservation and emissions reduction maximization,so that to provide a quantitative reference for optimization of energy structure in Hebei province.First,an overall summary of changing characteristics of energy structure and carbon intensity.The changing characteristics of energy consumption structure in Hebei province are summarized from perspectives such as the total amount of energy consumption and its industrial composition,primary energy composition and terminal energy composition,as well as the diversification and low carbonization of energy consumption structure.The carbon emission,carbon emission structure and carbon intensity of primary energy consumption and terminal energy consumption are calculated respectively to summarize the change characteristics.Secondly,the improved model of Kaya identity is adopted to establish carbon intensity factor decomposition model based on industry and energy respectively and in further to reveal the contribution of energy structure to carbon intensity change.The interactive effect of energy structure and other factors on carbon intensity is revealed by path analysis.On this basis,the interaction between the internal proportion of energy structure and its direct and indirect relationship with carbon intensity is further discussed.Thirdly,the carbon intensity target sensitivity model is built based on the carbon intensity decomposition model to calculate the sensitivity of energy structure optimization.Based on the carbon emission accounting formula and production function,the carbon intensity sensitivity matrix is constructed to evaluate the contribution of the internal optimization of energy structure.Besides,this paper also analyzes the carbon intensity sensitivity of coal consumption reduction via beyond logarithmic production function to evaluate the contribution of coal consumption reductionFourthly,combining with the connotation of low carbon energy structure optimization,from three dimensions of low carbon output,consumption and emission,this paper builds influencing factors index system of low carbon energy structure optimization,and through the integrated use of rough set theory,entropy value method,AHP method,conducts an optimal combination empowerment to various influence factors,so as to evaluate the level of low carbon energy structure optimization in Hebei province as well as specify the key indicators and points of low carbon energy structure optimization.Then,in light of the basic assumptions and a comprehensive consideration of the energy conservation and emission reduction targets,the energy structure low-carbon optimization model is established under the constraints of economic growth,energy conservation,greenhouse gas control and emission,energy resource endowment and technological progress.According to the energy status and development planning design parameters of Hebei province,multi-objective optimization of low carbonization of energy structure in 2020 is carried out.Finally,based on the above research conclusions,the direction of low carbon optimization of energy structure in Hebei province is determined,and the strategy of low carbon optimization of energy structure in Hebei province is proposed from the aspects of government regulation,energy saving constraint,industrial structure low carbon transition and energy low carbon technology innovation.