| China’s economic development has entered a new normal,new values of ecological equality,a new strategic concept of ―five in one‖,a new resource concept of ―two mountains‖,and a new economic concept of ―protecting the environment is to develop productive forces‖ have emerged.The 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will build ecological civilization as a millennium plan for the sustainable development of China.Only if the county-level governance is organized,the country can be peaceful.The county economy is an important component and catch point of the national economy.The prosperous country must first be rich at the county level.With the development of the county economy,the ecological environment of the county has been damagedto varying degrees,and the ecological development of the county is facing many challenges.The county occupies a key position in the implementation of national policy.It is the grass-roots unit that carries out the construction of ecological civilization.Promoting the construction of the ecological civilization at the county level is closer to the grassroots and closer to the masses,which will help to make the policies more precise and benefit the largest number of people.It is of great significance to the construction of national ecological civilization.Therefore,it is urgent to promote the construction of county ecological civilization scientifically and reasonably,and to promote the development of county economy.However,how to evaluate the level of county ecological civilization construction,what is the effect of county ecological civilization construction on economic development,and what kind of influence does different investment level of ecological civilization construction have on county economic development? How the construction of ecological civilization at county plays an important role in the economic development,the course and the path of the action.these aforementionedproblems need to be solved urgently.This research selected Sichuan Province(removing the high and cold Tibetan areas in Western Sichuan and the size of the Liangshan Yi District)as research areas,and based on regional economics theory,ecological footprint theory,economic growth theory and sustainable development theory,and using geographic information system(GIS)three-stage super-efficiency DEA,dynamic panel threshold effect model,system dynamics and other research methods,to study the effect and mechanism of ecological civilization construction on economic development in Sichuan county.The concrete contents and conclusions are summarized as follow:First of all,through the improved ecological footprint model to calculate the level of ecological civilization construction in the county.Based on the theory of ecological footprint,the research is based on geographic information system(GIS)and net primary productivity(NPP)the concept of "provincial hectare" is introduced to improve the shortcomings of the traditional ecological footprint model,which is based on nearly 50,000 county level data from 2006 to 2015 in Sichuan Province.The ecological footprint per capita,ecological carrying capacity per capita and ecological deficit per capita of 135 counties in Sichuan Province from 2006 to 2015 are obtained.The results show that the ecological deficit in all counties in the study area is increasing year by year.The ecological environment has been in a state of great insecurity for a long time,and the sustainability of development has declined.But at the same time,after 2012,because many counties began to emphasize the importance of county ecological civilization construction in the economic development,the rapid growth trend of ecological footprint of some counties was not only contained,but also appeared on the trend of decreasing ecological footprint.This also requires all the counties and districts in Sichuan Province to formulate county economic development strategy;fully take into account their respective ecological conditions;effectively keep in accordance with their own county situation,so as to adjust measures to local conditions,which provide a solid data base and support for the follow-up county ecological civilization construction level measurements.Secondly,the dynamic panel threshold effect model is used to study the effect of Sichuan county ecological civilization construction on economic development.For the first time,the three-stage super-efficiency DEA model is used to study the economic efficiency of Sichuan districts and counties.Through empirical analysis,it is found that exogenous environment and random error factors affect the measurement of economic efficiency,and the economic efficiency of each district and county in Sichuan is different.The overall performance of the economic efficiency is satisfactory and stable,but there are great differences in the economic efficiency of each district and county,and the fluctuation range of some districts and counties is larger.On this basis,supported by the theory of regional economics and ecological footprint,and the ―ecological incentive-economic growth-effect measurement‖,the dynamic panel threshold effect model of county ecological civilization analysis on economic development is constructed.According to the normative steps of empirical research,the dependent variables,independent variables and control variables are set up,and the ecological footprint threshold value is measured.It is found that when cultivated land and energy are chosen as threshold variables,there are double thresholds.When woodland is selected as threshold variable,there is single threshold tillage.When grassland and construction land are selected as threshold variables,there are three thresholds;When the water area is chosen as the threshold variable,there is no single threshold.The increase of ecological footprint of cultivated land and woodland has always promoted the development of regional economy and gradually increased the impact.The increase of grassland ecological footprint has always promoted the development of regional economy,but the influence has gradually decreased.The increase of energy ecological footprint has always been a restraining effect on regional economic development,and its influence shows a trend of rising and then decreasing.The increase of ecological footprint of construction land initially promotes the development of regional economy and the influence increases gradually,but when it increases to a certain extent,it will restrain the development of regional economy.In practice,when formulating plans for the construction of ecological civilization,we should not only take into account the objectives and effects of each ecological footprint,but also take into account the current economic development situation of all districts and counties in Sichuan Province,so as to provide different county ecological civilization construction promotion programs to maximize the efficiency of regional economic development,which as a further extension and expansion of the previous part of the study,making the study more specific and meticulous.Thirdly,using the system dynamics model to study the mechanism of the ecological civilization construction in Sichuan county on the economic development.The research is based on the concept of "ecological conduction mechanism-building model-simulation-action mechanism analysis",and is supported by the theory of environmental and social system development and the theory of ecological footprint,and related elements such as cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water area,energy,construction land,etc.The introduction of county ecological civilization construction areas,the introduction of population,economy and other elements,the analysis of the rules and boundaries,the establishment of the system dynamics simulation model.Then,the simulation results and actual data are compared and analyzed according to the model,and the validity of the simulation is tested,and the corresponding simulation curve and the variation curve of the contribution degree of the relevant parameters are obtained.The influence curve of cultivated land is flat S-type,and the influence curve of grassland is anti-J type.The order of contribution of these individual factors to economic development from large to small is as follows:Construction land,arable land,grassland,energy,woodland and water.By studying the mechanism of county ecological civilization construction on economic development through system dynamics simulation method,we can analyze whether there are excessive problems in county ecological civilization construction.Therefore,it provides important data support for making more scientific decision to promote the construction of county ecological civilization and promoting the development of county economy.At the same time,it enriches and expands the application field of system dynamics and makes the research more forward-looking and original.Finally,based on the above research,the author puts forward some relevant policy recommendations on promoting the construction of ecological civilization in Sichuan province and promoting the development of county economy. |
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