Research On Low-carbon Development And Taxation Policy Of Transportation In The Silk Road Economic Belt (domestic Section)

In recent years,transportation industry has become the second largest greenhouse gas emission source in the world.China's increment speed of transportation energy consumption and carbon emissions are faster than the world average level,It's carbon emission has become the third largest industry.the scale of transportation will be further expanded in the future,and the carbon emission will be even more worried under the new pattern of westward,east-west linkage and comprehensive opening of the Silk Road economic belt,the Silk Road's environmental quality is related to the modernization of our country and the ecological security of the Eurasian countries,facing the climate change and the pressure of international carbon reduction,our government attaches great importance to the low-carbon development of transportation and requires the coordinated and sustainable development of resources and environment.therefore,the thesis put transportation carbon tax into the low carbon development research framework,theoretically analyzed and empirically demonstrated on the design of low-carbon transportation and tax policy of the Silk Road economic belt.It will have important theoretical and practical significance of innovating the transportation low carbon development thinking of the Silk Road economic belt,promoting the technological innovation of emission reduction,reducing energy consumption intensity,optimizing the transportation structure,realizing targets of green coordination and beautiful China,sustainable development and international carbon emission reduction.This thesis combed the transportation history,transportation low carbon development policies and the effect of the Silk Road,then calculated the transportation carbon emission trend and space transfer,factors affecting transportation energy consumption,the scale of energy consumption and the potential of carbon emission reduction by means of ESDA,path analysis and VAR models;measured the performance of transportation carbon emission reduction and the inter-provincial gap by using the method of LMDI decomposition and Malmquist index;simulated the carbon tax rate and the carbon tax effect under different scenarios by making CGE recursive dynamic model;Finally,combined with the analysis results,designed carbon tax system and suggested countermeasures to transportation low-carbon development based on the requirements of the 13th Five-Year Plan and the international target of carbon emission reduction,the main conclusions are as follows:First,the transportation has developed rapidly,it has changed from zero carbon emissions,high carbon emissions to low carbon emissions of Silk Road economic belt.The existing fiscal and taxation policies are less efficient in regulating low-carbon development and lack of special environmental taxes,Lack of measures to tax the main pollutants of fossil energy such as coal,etc.Second,the scale and intensity of transportation carbon emission were increasing along the Silk Road economic belt,the difference and spatial transfer phenomenon of transportation carbon emission between provinces were great,the carbon emission from highway and pipeline transportation industry were accelerating,the quality transportation low-carbon development was declining gradually of Northwest provinces Since 2013.Third,the turnover conversion(economic activities)was the dominant factor of affecting transportation energy consumption.The energy consumption of per unit turnover(technological progress)had significant inhibitory effect on carbon emission,while the proportion of road civil aviation turnover(traffic and transport structure)had the diminishing promotional effect on carbon emission.Fourth,if reduce the transportation energy consumption,innovate technology,slow down economic growth and optimize the structure of transportation,there will be more space for transportation carbon emission reduction.Fifth.the transportation energy conservation and emission reduction effect were increasing slowly.Among them.the promotion effect of the turnover conversion and transport intensity on carbon emissions was decreasing.the suppression effect of energy consumption structure and energy intensity on carbon emissions was weakened gradually Since 2013.Sixth,the slow growth rate of transportation carbon emission reduction and the obvious regional difference of emission reduction performance because of the slow technology progress.Seventh,It will be helpful for improving technical efficiency and technological progress,reducing energy intensity and carbon emission intensity,optimizing transportation structure and promoting transportation low-carbon development if a carbon tax on CO2 emissions from fossil energy will be levied.Eighth,if levy carbon tax by using a fixed rate,remaining the neutral fiscal revenue,returning carbon tax revenue to enterprises and residents according to a certain proportion for reducing enterprise turnover tax and resident income tax,the carbon emission reduction per unit GDP will be promoted,social welfare level will be raised,negative effects on macroeconomic impact will be reduced,the double dividend effect will be better realized.This thesis has three innovation points:first,Innovation of research perspective.the thesis researched the low-carbon development of transportation in the Silk Road economic belt based on the perspective of carbon tax for the first time,combed systematically the transportation development along the Silk Road and the process of making low carbon system,simulated the optimal transportation carbon tax rate,put forward the tax policy of promoting the low-carbon transportation development,achieved a breakthrough in theoretical research.Second,Innovation of sample and variable selection.The thesis Scientifically screened out the main variables affecting the Energy consumption and carbon Emission of Transport by adopting the logic system from the factors influencing mechanism analysis to the key factors screening,and then to the test of VAR dynamic relation according to the development practice of 13 provinces and regions along the Silk Road Economic Belt in China,Improved multiple empirical models,calculated The carbon emission reduction potential and carbon emission reduction performance of various transportation sectors.Third,Innovation of policy recommendations,the thesis proposed tax return system according to the analysis results and the optimal carbon tax rate,promoted the realization of the"double dividend"'effect,and put forward the Countermeasures such as building energy high-speed rail to promote low-carbon transportation development.