Study On The Variation Characteristics Of Water Resources And Reasonable Allocation Of Alar Irrigation Area

The reasonable allocation of water resources is an effective way to achieve the sustainable use of limited water resources in Alar Irrigation area.Based on the combination of the previous related research results and the present situation of water resources in the reclamation area in Alar Reclamation Area,and according to the most strict water resources management system called"three red lines",the evolution law of water resources has been analyzed,the model of the reasonable allocation of water resources in the reclamation area has been built and its application has been studied,thus leading to the achievement of several reasonable allocation schemes of water resources in the reclamation area,the comprehensive benefits of which have also been evaluated.The main results are as follows:(1)To clarify the regulation of water resource changes in the reclamation area,the impact of the changes originated from air temperature and precipitation and groundwater evolution on water resources in the area has been studied according to its characteristics,theory and method of water resources evolution in reclamation area;and in view of the influence of climate,hydrology,human activities and other factors,the cumulative anomaly method,Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze the periodic trend,mutation and mutagenicity in the evolution of the runoff in the reclamation area.Through the analysis of the data,The temperature change of the firs main cycle mainly exists in 31th years,The first main precipitation change cycle mainly exist 10th years,annual runoff changes the first main cycle there are 31th years of the agricultural areas;In view of the trend,Annual average temperature of present a rising trend,the trend rate of 0.2°C/10 a,the annual average precipitation showing a rising trend,tendency rate is 6.144 mm/10 a,agricultural areas presents ascendant trend of annual runoff,tendency rate of 4.6×10~8 m~3/10 a.(2)To predict the water demand in reclamation area,including the demands for agricultural irrigation,industrial use,residents living,livestock water consumption,urban green space and ecological needs,etc.,rational water consumption quotas have been set,mainly according to the"three red"lines system of water resources in the reclamation area,and the economic and social development trend;and the establishment of the index system of water demand of different users has been achieved and the amount of water demand in the future for those different sectors has been predicted according to different level years and planning schemes.Under assurance(75%),2020 and 2030 of agricultural irrigation water demand were 8.45×10~8 m~3 and 8.23×10~8 m~3;Industrial water demand were 0.145×10~8 m~3 and 0.224×10~8 m~3;Urban domestic water in 2020will reach 0.029×10~8 m~3 and 0.057×10~8 m~3 in 2030;Ecological total water demand in 2020 will reach 1.76×10~8 m~3,In 2030 will reach 1.8×10~8 m~3;2020 and 2030 of water supply for total were10.05×10~8 m~3 and 10.138×10~8 m~3(3)To confirm the reasonable allocation scheme of water resources in reclamation area,a reasonable allocation model of water resources comprehensively optimized for sustainable development has been built,which is achieved according to the current situation of water resources utilization in Alar reclamation area and"the 13th Five-Year"development planning,and by the"three red lines"control objectives in the South Region of Xinjiang,as well as on the basis of calculation and analysis of balancing the supply and demand in limited water resources in the reclamation area,considering,take 2015 as a base year for example,the perspectives of water ecological environment and the development and utilization of water resources.In Matlap environment,the genetic algorithm(GA)was used to substantiate the water resources allocation model,and the practical allocation schemes of water resources in the reclamation area in Alar have been obtained under different guarantee rates(50%,75%,95%)and the three planning schemes.(4)To evaluate the comprehensive benefits of the reasonable allocation of water resources,the comprehensive benefit evaluation index level of rational allocation of water resources in Alar reclamation area has been confirmed,which is done from the theory of evaluation index system in order to explore the construction of evaluation index system for water resources allocation in Alar reclamation area,and principal component analysis(PCA)has been used to analyze the primary indexes;In the case of configuration results under 75%guaranteed rate of the three planning programs in 2030 of Alar reclamation area,using an evaluation method based on fuzzy matter-element theory and improved iterative entropy theory,and based on the maximum principle of optimal,the comprehensive benefit evaluation of the feasibility of each plan has been analyzed.The results show that in the three configuration scheme,the one focusing on economic growth and water conservation is better than the other two water resource allocation schemes,which will be more conducive to the coordinated and sustainable development in economic,social and ecological aspects.