Research On The Scale Effect Of Urban Development In Northeast China

Urbanization is the inevitable result of economic development and the important engine of economic growth and industrialization is the basis of urbanization.At the same time,the scale effect of urban development also needs the service industry cluster development which matches the industry.The northeast region of China has established a sophisticated industrial system,and the industrialization level has been at a high level in China.This has also promoted the rapid development of urbanization in the region.However,since the introduction of reform and opening up policy in China,the northeast economy has gradually been surpassed by the developed regions in the east,and the economic development has entered the bottleneck stage of slow structural adjustment.The economic development of cities is a mirror of the northeast economic adversity,so an intensive study of the realization of city scale effect mechanism and the policy effect of the institutional system can contribute to clearer understanding of the real economy development dilemma.Hence,it has positive theoretical significance and practical significance to the northeast old industrial base.On the basis of researching and summarizing the results of representative research at home and abroad,this paper conducts an in-depth study on the scale effect of northeast cities of China from three aspects: basic evidence,realization mechanism and policy effect.The economic effect of city scale is the increment of factor compensation and the improvement of production efficiency.In this paper,DEA model and econometric model are adopted to preliminarily verify the existence of urban scale effect in northeast China.Northeast city scale and static efficiency has significant correlation,the evolution of the technical efficiency to keep the big cities to improve year by year,to improve the effect of small and medium-sized cities is relatively weak in big cities.Most cities are in the stage of scale increasing return,and scale efficiency improvement is all important driving force for the continual improvement of the urban comprehensive efficiency.Cities' total factor productivity rate in northeast China has significantly positive relation with the population size.The main contribution to the total factor productivity rate growth in big cities is the technology progress,while in small and medium-sized cities the total factor productivity growth is mainly driven by scale efficiency growth.Econometric modeling test found that population expansion in northeast China plays a significantly positive role in improving economic efficiency,and takes on the significant period effect and scale effect,that is,the recent scale effect is greater than the long-term scale effect and scale effect in big cities is greater than that of the small and medium-sized cities.The distribution of urban scale in northeast China basically conforms to the local pareto distribution under Zipf and the whole logarithm distribution under Gibrat rule.Leading cities in northeast China,however,show slow development;high order urban agglomeration is not prominent;urban competition causes slightly larger scattered force than concentrated force;and distribution of the certain level cities is excessively concentrated,number of such cities lacks relative balance.In carding on the basis of summarizing the existing research results,this paper builds a model of industrial agglomeration,further analyzes the implementation mechanism of the development of urban size,and conducts a metrology test to the urban development in northeast China.Urban per capita output growth in northeast China and its population scale takes on an inverted u-shaped curve relationship: the marginal effect of small urban agglomeration is greater than the big cities,but the small cities' ability to absorb the population which is subject to the backward industrialization level is significantly lower than big cities.The optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure has threshold effect on the action mechanism of the northeastern city's per capita output growth: cities cross the threshold size show the positive effect,cities not cross the minimum threshold size show the negative effects.This restriction effect presents mainly general backward manufacturing development,artificially high proportion of service industry-manufacturing,and the mismatch between population scale and industrial structure.Reducing transaction costs between cities plays significant positive role in promoting the per capita output growth of northeastern cities,the results of per capita capital stock estimation show that the scale of urban development in northeast China is still in the capital driven growth phase.The improvements in infrastructure which is represented by per capita road area reflect that urban congestion cost reduction in the northeast is playing a positive role in promoting scale effect.Within the framework of the neoclassical growth model,a steady-state level of growth of the urban economy also requires achieving equilibrium urban scale effect and crowding effect.The short term scale effect impact will take economic growth back to the steady state level because of intensification of the,but the balance between the scale effect and congestion effect at a higher level will improve the level of the optimal city.The urban optimal scale is determined by equilibrium of residents savings rate,technological progress and human capital level and other factors.There are significant city scale economy effect in the process of urban economic development in northeast China from 1998 to 2015,and the changing characteristics of the time series are increasing year by year.The difference of human capital,market factor,industry factor and urban functions has significant influence on the urban agglomeration effect in northeast cities.The relationship between the population scale and economic growth presents inverted u-shaped variation characteristics: increase at first and decreases later.The human capital externality contributes the most in the interaction effect of population agglomeration,followed by the degree of market liberalization,industrial diversity sows the least influence,and even the inhibition effect.Industrial connection and diversity factor test results show that the industrial structure in northeast China cities needs further optimization.At present,the concentration level of the service industry of big cities is not sufficient to endure the further population expansion,manufacturing in most of the millions of populations size city is generally backward or of single structure.A blind expansion of service industry development without the support by solid industrial foundation will be unfavorable to urban output growth.Loosen the household registration regulation and strengthen the fiscal decentralization has significant positive policy effect on the city's economic development in northeast China,but this effect mechanism has threshold effect;policy effect within the threshold scale effect has significant positive effect.The positive policy effect of fiscal decentralization expansion requires a match between decentralization level and the population scale within the threshold.When the urban population scale crosses the threshold it will lead to policy effect direction reversal.This finance growth limit reflects the interaction of urban public product congestion effect,furthermore,a particular stage of development and transformation in the northeastern city also makes the decentralization effect more sensitive to the central financial transfer payment fluctuations.Loosing the household registration regulation will help improve the level of urban per capita output in northeast China.Due to the limitation of urban public product cost,big cities above a certain threshold scale have tendency to strengthen the household registration regulation.However,the self-reinforcing mechanism of the household registration regulation makes big cities still attract a large number of population agglomeration,and the household registration regulation failed to match the real market demand.Policy system reflects the economic interests concern of the local government and the interaction of the urban public product congestion effect.Therefore in the process of city development in northeast China,speeding up the pace of economic restructuring is needed,as well as a further optimization of the structure of fiscal expenditure.Big cities should moderately loosen the household registration regulation to make them gradually withdraw from self-reinforcing mechanism,while small and medium-sized cities need to improve the level of public products supply to orderly bear the migration of non-household registered population,so as to promote the achievement of win-win momentum of the policy effect of relevant systems between the cities.