Spatial Responses Of Rice And Maize Production To Climate Changes In Northeast China

Climate is one of the factors that affect crop growth.Climate change continues to have a great impact on crop production in China.It has received considerable attention for a long time.This study focuses on the response of rice and maize to climate change in Northeast China(NEC),which is the major grain production region and has experienced the most prominent warming in China.The historical climate observations from the China Meteorological Administration and statistical agricultural records at the county level between 1980 and 2011 were utilized to evaluate the spatial effects of both climatic and non-climatic factors on rice and maize production,to estimate the contribution of each factor on crop production growth.We found that a 1%increase in the rice growing season temperature(GST)increases rice production by about 0.73%.Rising temperatures over the past three decades account for a 4.4%increase in rice production in NEC while the majority of the rice production growth(79.6%),came from increased agricultural inputs.Furthermore,the geographic centroid of rice production shifted over 320 km northeastward during this period.Historical statistical and simulated rice production data for each county were used to quantify the spatial relocation of rice production due to single climatic factors.The results showed that temperature has a significant and coherent influence on moving the rice production.Growing season precipitation and sunshine also had a significant,but less spatially coherent influence.A 1%increase in the maize growing season temperature(GST)increases maize production by about 0.87%.Rising temperatures over the past three decades account for a 5.2%increase in maize production in NEC while the majority of the maize production growth(88.6%),came from increased agricultural inputs.Furthermore,the geographic centroid of maize production shifted over 138 km northeastward during this period.Historical statistical and simulated maize production data for each county were used to quantify the spatial relocation of maize production due to single climatic factors.The results showed that temperature and sunshine have a significant and coherent influence on moving the maize production.Growing season precipitation also had a significant,but less spatially coherent influence.Both of production and area relocation shifted dramatically for rice in 1980s and 1990s,and maize in 2000s.However,the dramatic shift of production and area relocation did not appear at the same time.The significant rice production relocation was started 2 years earlier than area in 1990s,but for maize the significant production relocation is started 5 years later than area...