Study On The Impact Of House Price Change On The Consumption Of Urban Residents In China

Since the reform and opening up,China’s economic and social development level has increased rapidly,people’s living standards have also improved day by day,and people’s living conditions such as food,clothing,housing and transportation have also improved day by day.At the same time,the housing conditions of residents are also changing with each passing day,which is inseparable from the vigorous development of China’s real estate trading market.China’s real estate marketization process began with the reform and opening up in 1978.It has been more than 40 years.Now it has developed into a relatively stable and mature market.However,with the development of the real estate market,the overheating of the real estate market has also become a social problem that can not be ignored.Too high house prices have also brought a certain burden to residents’ life.Some scholars have found that too high house prices may crowd out residents’ consumption.At present,the literature of scholars at home and abroad has not reached a consistent conclusion on the impact of house prices on Residents’ consumption.Therefore,the study on the action mechanism and influence ways of real estate market development and house price changes on Residents’ consumption has important theoretical and practical significance for the healthy and stable high-quality development of China’s economy and the improvement of people’s living standards.Firstly,this paper combs the relevant literature,summarizes the theoretical basis of the impact of house price fluctuation on Residents’ consumption,and mainly expounds the wealth effect and inhibition effect.Next,this paper collects the quarterly data of China’s house price and residents’ consumption from 2004 to 2019,and uses the vector autoregressive(VAR)model to consider other factors that may affect residents’ consumption.The study finds that house price is an important factor affecting residents’ consumption,which is second only to per capita disposable income,and there is a positive correlation between house price and overall consumption.Then,in order to analyze the regional differences of the impact of house price fluctuation on Residents’ consumption,the annual panel data of 31 provinces are collected,the regions are divided,the method of system generalized moment estimation(SYS-GMM)is selected,and the panel regression is used to find that there is regional heterogeneity in the impact of house price on Residents’ consumption.Among them,the eastern region shows a wealth effect,and the central and western regions have a crowding out effect,which may be caused by different levels of economic development.Finally,in order to make the wealth effect of China’s real estate market manifest,avoid the crowding out effect of rising house prices on Residents’ consumption,and prevent the emergence of foam in the real estate market,this paper puts forward some targeted policies and suggestions according to the above research conclusions,mainly including the following four points.First,China’s economic development level is uneven,and there are huge regional differences in the impact of house prices on consumption.Therefore,all localities should implement differentiated real estate regulation policies according to local conditions in combination with local conditions.Second,disposable income is a key factor in determining residents’ consumption.Therefore,local governments should start with increasing residents’ disposable income,reducing the gap between the rich and the poor,and expanding domestic demand,so as to offset the crowding out effect of rising house prices on Residents’ consumption.Third,strengthen the improvement of the real estate financial market.Local governments can cooperate with various local financial structures to improve and standardize the local housing loan market,so as to further enhance the regulatory role of Finance in the real estate market.Fourth,improve the social security system,so that everyone can have their own house,and guide the correct concept of consumption.Only when the homeowners have no worries at home,can they use their savings for consumption,so as to promote domestic demand.