Research On The Impact Of Housing Restriction Policy And House Price Fluctuation On Household Debt

Since the market-oriented reform of commercial housing was implemented in1998,the real estate industry has developed rapidly,and the rapid development of the real estate industry has become a pillar industry of our national economy,which is vital to the development of our national economy.At the same time,as a necessary commodity for residents' living,housing prices continue to rise too fast,which is beyond the purchasing power of ordinary residents.It has caused a series of social and economic problems,and has become the focus of attention.Another typical fact accompanying the "boom" of the housing market is that China's financial market has also undergone tremendous changes.Each round of house price rises will be accompanied by the rapid convergence of credit funds into the real estate market.While the house price rises,the scale of China's family debt also rises sharply,and presents a rising trend,which leads to the "subprime crisis" of China's version worry.Therefore,how to stabilize housing prices and control household debt at a reasonable level has become the focus of academic and political attention.Therefore,the central government and the government have carried out many policy adjustments and controls,especially since 2010,China has entered the most severe period of tight real estate regulation and control in history.The housing market regulation and control policies have achieved the goal of stabilizing house prices to a certain extent,and have a certain impact on the scale of family debt.However,the goal of regulation and control has not been fully achieved,and the momentum of household debt and house price rise has not been completely curbed.So,how does the purchase restriction policy affect household debt and house price changes? All of these problems urgently need profound answers from the academic community.Based on this,this article uses monthly data from 128 prefecture-level cities in China from January 2009 to December 2017,and constructs double-difference model to examine the impact of housing purchase restriction policies and house price fluctuations on household debt.The research results show that:(1)With other conditions unchanged,the purchase restriction policy significantly inhibited the growth of household debt,and the more severe the effect of the housing purchase restriction policy is,the more obvious the effect is.At the same time,the housing purchase restriction policy has heterogeneity among cities,the central region has agreater impact,followed by the eastern region,and the western region has the weakest impact.(2)The impact of the housing purchase restriction policy on household debt and house price is only reflected in the relative value,that is to say,it effectively restrains the rate of increase in household debt and house prices,but has no significant impact on the absolute value of household debt and house price increases.(3)The unanticipated house price fluctuation has a positive correlation with the change of household debt,and the unanticipated house price increase will restrain the negative impact of the housing purchase restriction policy on the growth rate of household debt scale.The main contributions of this article are as follows:(1)From the perspective of the financial market,studying the effects of the housing purchase restriction policy and its channels that affect household debt has enriched the existing research on the factors affecting household debt and provided policy insights for the government to control household debt at a reasonable level.Theoretical and practical significance.(2)With the help of the quasi-natural experiment of the purchase restriction policy,the DID method was used to study the impact of the housing purchase restriction policy on household debt.By comparing the changes in household debt and house prices in cities with restricted purchases and non-restricted purchases can better identify the extent of the impact of purchase restrictions on household debts,and can solve the endogenous problem of the model,and improve the accuracy of the empirical analysis results.