Research On Vulnerability Assessment Of Urban Lifeline System Based On Perspective Of Disaster Loss

In the fast developing period of urbanization and industrialization,China nowadays has relied on infrastructure construction and development by urban carrying capacity and concentration of industrial economy,and the core infrastructure is to guarantee and maintain residents' living and industrial development,which is called urban lifeline system.With the developing of urban modernization,each subsystem of lifeline system and the relation between lifeline system and residents'living emerge high reliance,complexity and relevance,which also make the vulnerability of lifeline system increase day by day.On the basis of influence factor of quantitative research on urban lifeline vulnerability,the formation mechanism,acting path and assessment of Lifeline system facilities directly and indirectly damage has been an important topic of vulnerability assessment on lifeline system.For this purpose,this paper integrates the problems after combing influence factors of urban lifeline vulnerability and relevant research work,vulnerability assessment of urban lifeline system based on perspective of disaster loss is presented,that according to the research objectives and demands of different stages of disaster prevention,response and recovery,by introducing system elasticity efficiency in order to improve pertinence of assessment model possesses more actual guiding significance.In this paper,the main research work is as follows:(1)In the stage of disaster mitigation and prepare,assessment lifeline system vulnerability based on own attribute by using the index system method.How to explore a comprehensive assessment system and analyze reduction mechanism from enormous operating data of urban lifeline system is still a problem worthy of study.On this basis,index system has been conducted to assess vulnerability of lifeline system under the state of non-natural disaster from the angles of qualitative and quantitative analysis,firstly intrinsic and fundamental attributes of vulnerability of lifeline system are analyzed from the loss-caused angles of lifeline system and indicators are obtained from the aspects of engineering,non-engineering and construction level.According to maximum and redundant information elimination principle to screen index quantitatively,evaluation index system of vulnerability of urban lifeline system under non-natural disaster situation is conducted;secondly,vulnerability of urban lifeline system under non-natural disaster is assessed with the combination of evaluation index system of system vulnerability and evaluation index weight determined by Principal Component Analysis in order to conduct index curve of vulnerability of urban lifeline system based on time dimension;finally,influence path and reduction mechanism of lifeline vulnerability is explored according to the results of vulnerability evaluation.By combing relevance,system elasticity,disaster loss and related articles of lifeline system,research hypothesis of reduction mechanism of system vulnerability are proposed and samples of lifeline-related enterprise survey are collected and systemized.Reduction mechanism of system vulnerability is analyzed empirically by LISERL Structural Equation Model.(2)In the regional disaster system,rsearch lifeline system vulnerability based on association loss attribute by using the DEA method.By researches relationship between lifeline system association loss attribute and formation mechanism and action path of disaster losses,establish a vector transformation based regional disaster system,assessing vulnerability of lifeline systems based on actual natural disaster loss data.Firstly,spatial variation research on vulnerability of urban lifeline system is operated in order to balance system differences of urban lifeline and refine research area.Under the frame of total factor analysis,vulnerability of natural disaster of 30 provinces has been precisely calculated and disaster vulnerability levels have been divided into Low,Medium and High Levels according to Malmquist Indicator;secondly,measurement model of panel data is applied and influence factor research on vulnerability of urban lifeline system based on spatial variation is conducted.The relevance influence factor of three disaster vulnerability level areas conducts respectively empirical analysis on influence factor of system vulnerability indicator and the results provide theoretical and empirical basis of assessment approaches of vulnerability of lifeline system under the state of natural disaster;finally,Based on disaster loss data and lifeline indicators,used as a vector to transform "input output" into the regional disaster system,then,the vulnerability index is a production index which is transformed into the level of urban lifeline system construction and the amount of disaster loss,taking Zhuanghe city as an example base on DEA-BCC model,decomposition of the vulnerability index,rich results and policy implications.(3)In the stage of disaster response and recovery,assessment lifeline system vulnerability based on the forward-relating and afterward-relating by using the Input-output method.In order to make effective disaster decision-making,according to location entropy conducted input-output coefficient of urban lifeline system,determine forward-relating and afterward-relating of lifeline system,assessment vulnerability of lifeline system and possible loss is made under disaster state.Firstly,on the basis of classical Improper Input-output Model(?M),5 sub-systems closed model of lifeline is constructed by the method of Many Factor Matrix(MFM)to analyze the front and back correlation of each subsystem and confirm the key subsystem(sector)of lifeline system from three angles-supply drive,demand drive and industrial structure transformation drive;secondly,When disaster and emergency occurred one or more subsystem has been destroyed or disturbed to analyze single subsystem or more subsystem changes in improper degree under the function of initial improper value,the disturbance of initial input value and initial improper value.Resilience productivity factor has been introduced to construct dynamic improper input-output model of elastic productivity and evaluate vulnerability of lifeline system.In conclusion,this paper aims to optimize the evaluation of vulnerability of urban lifeline system,and construct two kinds of vulnerability assessment models of urban lifeline system from the angle of disaster loss in order to expand theories and approaches of vulnerability assessment.This research could help to analyze function structure of lifeline system under non-disaster situation,which would promote urban function of balanced and sustainable development,and would have research value and practical guiding significance of urban disaster prevention and damage reduction under disaster situation.