| The ecological and environmental issues caused by climatic change has affected the human health and the social development.The scientists have focus on how to deal with the climate change.The IAM(Integrated Assessment Model),which contains economic system,climatic system and interactions between these two systems,has been widely used to access the effect of global climate governance.However,there are some shortcomings of IAM.First,the economic system in most IAM is macroeconomics,without the sectoral response within the country.Second,deviation on CO2 simulations has been caused since the neglect of the diversities between kinds of energies.Third,there has been de-globalization in the global economic progress recently,which means individual innovation within countries.That makes us to develop a general equilibrium model to reflect the real economy,then describe the international GDP spillover through international trade.This economic model has a merit on reflecting individual economic optimization while connecting to the global economy.As for carbon recycle model,we added energy consumption structure based on MRICES,an extend of famous DICE model series,and constructed an Expanded Multi-Regional Intergated model of Climate and Economy System(EMRICES-2017)which includes an economic system,an atmospheric carbon cycling system andsome relative supplementary modules.As for the economic system,in order to reflect the balanced economic in each country,we constructed a regional computable general equilibrium(CGE)model to describe the individual country’s development.Considering the ratio of four kinds of energies(coal,oil,natural gas and non-fossil energy)as energy structure,the improved carbon recycle in EMRICES-2017 contained energy consumption model and random shocks,with endogenous technical change.The CGE model and IAM are integrated at last.According to the World Bank,the regions in this study are low income countries,lower middle income countries,upper middle income countries,high income countries,European Union,China,United States,Russia,India and Japan.The economic system of China,United States,Russia,India and Japan can be changed to CGE model with 34 sectors.Through scenario simulations,the most close to the real situation was choosed as baseline,and we forecasted the economic situation and carbon emissions of all the regions in the future,analyzed the industrial structure and energy consumption structure of main countries(which contains China,the United States,Japan,India and Russia).We also analyzed the effects of carbon intensity on the regional economic development and carbon emissions.Considering the carbon reduction goals under INDCs(Intended Nationally Determined Contributions),we evaluated the emission reduction effects.The main results of this dissertation show:(1)In the baseline scenario,China’s GDP will exceed European Union and the United States at 2046 and 2051 respectively,becoming the largest economy in the world.The economic speed of European Union and the United States is a little lower with a higher per capita GDP.The carbon emissions of the whole world increase at first and decrease later.The global average temperature rises 3.38 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level,exceeding the temperature control target of 2 degrees Celsius.As for the countries,the carbon emissions of China will peak at 2033,the carbon emissions of European Union will peak at 2028,the carbon emissions of Russia will peak at 2072,the carbon emissions of India will peak at 2059,the carbon emissions of upper middle income countries will peak at 2057,and the carbon emissions of lower middle income countries will peak at 2076.The carbon emissions of low income countries increase all the time,while the carbon emissions of the Unite States and Japan decrease all the years.(2)The simulation results on industrial structure of main countries show that,the ratio of primary industry decrease in the whole GDP of most countries;the industrial changes are more obvious in developing countries than developed countries,and the changes decrease by years.The ratio of secondary industry in China,India and Russia increase.The increasing rate of secondary industry in India is much lager than that in China and Russia,which makes the ratio of secondary industry in India is approximate to that in China.(3)The simulation results on energy consumption structure of main countries show that,non-fossil energy and natural gas will be the main energy consumption for most countries.As for the coal,the ratio of coal in the whole energy consumption decrease in China and India,while that in the United States,Japan and Russia increase.(4)In the total emissions scenario,which means the energy consumption coefficient is same as that in 2009 during the period of 2010-2100,the carbon emission of the whole word will peak at 2097 and the global average temperature rises 4.92 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level.A main finding in this scenario is some countries’ economy will decrease due to the negative feedback by climatic system.The GDP of Japan,the United States,and China decreased from 2054,2074,and 2087,respectively.That indicates that countries will benefit from the carbon reduction policy.(5)In the historical evolution scenario,which means the energy intensity in the future is predicted by historical data,the carbon emissions of the whole world will peak at 2069 year and the global average temperature rises 3.06 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level,decreased by 0.31 degrees Celsius compared with the baseline scenario.(6)Constrained by all regions’ reduction goals of INDC before 2030 and the carbon emissions remain stable to 2100,the global average temperature rises 2.61 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level,decreased by 0.76 degrees Celsius compared with the baseline scenario.The 2 degrees Celsius goal hasn’t realized in this scenario. |
