The Game Analysis Of China’s Foreign Trade Pattern’s Transition

Foreign trade is an essential part of the development of national economy.Since China’s reform and opening up,the rapid development of foreign trade has become the important driving force to promote China’s comprehensive economic strength and international influence.Five-year period in the 13 th Five Year Plan is a key to the process of the socialist modernization.In order to realize the aim of the 13 th Five Year Plan,“Five Ideas” should be firmly established: persisting economy-construction centered policy,practically holding the new characteristics in development,strengthening the structural reforms,accelerating the transformation of economic development mode,and realizing a more sustainable higher-quality,efficient,and just development.Although in the period of the “ 9th Five Year Plan”,our government has already noticed some problems such as the extensive form of resource utilization in the development of foreign trade and less modes of market expansion in international market,which bring such trouble to our economy and foreign trade as low profit in foreign trade and worsening inside and outside environment,the government positively promotes the transformation of foreign trade development mode,however,the situation of foreign trade development is still severe,and problems such as the unsustainable still exists.In September 2015,the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council recently print and distribute Some Issues on the Construction of New System of Open Economy,on which it definitely requires that the new advantages of international cooperative competition,foreign trade competition and implementation of quality-profit oriented foreign policies should be made.In March 2016,The outline of the 13 th Five Year Plan proposes an aim of development: “accelerating the improvement of an upgrading the foreign trade,and transforming China from a big trading nation to a trading power.” Under this background,it has important theoretical and practical value to carry on a research on the effects of the transition of foreign trade development modes,policies and relative interest subjects.The paper,first of all,is a statistical analysis of the development of China’s trade,based on which it constructs the evaluation index system of the transformation of trade development modes oriented by scientific implication of foreign trade developing modes.In addition to that Shapley value concept in cooperative game and decomposition method have been introduced to evaluate each index’s contribution to the trade development,so as to realize the assessment criteria and technique innovation,as a result it gets a better result of evaluation and an implication and conclusion with a stronger connotation of policy;further more the paper guided by theories of games,sorts out and analyzes the experience of some trading powers and some characteristics of the policies to promote the transformation of trading development modes and construct a game model to carry out a game analysis of the effectiveness on policies from the involved subjects;afterwards based on repetitive games,it constructs three models of games between enterprises,enterprises and consumers,government and enterprises;it analyzes the ways to realize the transformation of trade development modes and lays a theoretical foundation for the its policy implementation oriented by competition policy as its core.The paper is exploratory and its innovation mainly lies in six aspects.one is the innovation of evaluation index and method.First,based on implication of the transformation of trade,through the construction of trade identity,the paper takes Shapley value decomposition as a way to have realized comprehensive and quantitative assessment of trade development modes from the view of resource usage and market development so as to establish the core of the transformation of the trade development modes is ideas of renovation.It lays foundation for the promotion policy’s transformation from ideas to the enforceable and measurable policies;second,this thesis analyzes issues such as the insufficiency of restrictions from the construction of game modes for the policy of the trade development modes transformation within a frame of the design system;it points out that incorrectness of information is the reason for the ineffective implementation of relative policies.Third,based on the innovatory game between enterprises,two game models of information of product quality and new efforts of enterprise innovation,the thesis analyzes the deficiency of innovation in enterprises under the mechanism of market governance.Forth,based on the repetitive game equilibrium,it has established the realization system of repetitive game from the the speed of information circulation,the concept of sustainable development and the governance structure of the industry;fifth,based on the theory of reputation mechanism,game models are constructed from information sharing mechanisms and cost in safeguarding the rights and interest and the enterprises’ innovation is analyzed;sixth,the game model of “prisoner’s dilemma” under the restraint environment is established to build a system of shared confidence and promote the innovation of enterprises.Based on above researches,the last part of the thesis puts forward strategies and suggestions about enhancing the effects of the transformation of China’s foreign trade development modes.