| Since the Reform and Opening-up,with the rapid industrialization and urbanization,the urban population growth leads to increased demand for vegetables.On the other hand,with the improving of urban and rural living standards,not only per capita consumption has increased,and much more emphasize the annual consumption and species diversity.Driven by demand,the rapid development of vegetable industry,Livestock and the grain industry have become the three pillars.Vegetable industry play an important role in ensuring urban and rural residents basic consumer demand,increasing farmers' income and promoting employment.In recent years,frequent fluctuations in of vegetables price caused widespread concern.Agricultural price related to farmers' income and food expenditure of urban residents.In the past three years,continuous central document proposes to strengthen the system and institutional construction on circulation of agricultural products,where in 2012 the central document explicitly proposed to improve the fresh agricultural market regulation approach,explore the establishment of vegetable price stability mechanism.After 1978,China began to implement market-driven agricultural reform,vegetable growing areas shift from the suburbs focus to agricultural areas.Vegetable circulation breaks the city self-sufficient and enclosed supply.Vegetables was produced in region which have comparative advantages,and circulated in the broader areas.It's favorable to China's total demand for growing amount vegetables,annual consumption and species diversity,but price linkage mechanism formation between regional market.For the reason that,price fluctuation law of particular area has been unsuitable as a basis for price control policy making.For now,it's have great significance to study price transmission mechanism between regional market(vertical market).The traditional neo-classical economic theory was proved to be correct in the long term,which means the market is complete,and the economy is considered to be constant equilibrium.However,in the short term the market is not complete,and the existence of the equilibrium price to be challenged.In this study,the main concern is transmission mechanism between regional market(vertical market)in the short term.It has two forms of price asymmetric transmission:Firstly,based on different price transmission direction,the price show as different magnitude and speed;Secondly,the price rose and fell show as different magnitude and speed.At present,the armers' market,wholesale market and retail market are key links from farmers to consumers.This paper draw the former markets as focal point to analyse the price transmission between regional market(vertical market).The main contents are as follows:Part1:Analysis of China's vegetable circulation structureIn terms of annual output of vegetables production scale index show that the vegetables production concentration is low.With the vegetable production areas transfer to agricultural areas which have seasonal comparative advantage.Now there are some seasonal vegetables production area have high production concentration,and became to production area which supply to the entire nation.From the analysis of vegetable consumption concentration,found that numerous city consumption areas are widly distributed,but a few extra-large and large cities maintain a high demand for vegetables,and become a concentrated vegetable consumption area.According to the distribution of vegetable production and consumption,there are two style circulation structures:First,"producing decentralized,centralized supplying to extra-large and large cities";Second,"producing in high concentration,decentralized supplying to numerous cities".In terms of the main circulation channels,the longitudinal collaboration is loosePart2:Analysis of structural characteristics of vegetable price fluctuationFirstly,from 1994 to 2013,the trend of vegetable price act as a smooth linear growth;The seasonal volatility of vegetable price continue to weaken,but the cyclical volatility of vegetable price perform significantly and became strengthening.Secondly,cyclical volatility perform differently to the different vegetable varieties.Some vegetables,such as ginger,cabbage,garlic,onion,chinese cabbage,celery,wax gourd and white radish show strengthening cyclical volatility.Thirdly,on account of the harvest of the peak season and the off-season is different to different areas,the peak and valley of vegetable priceof different areas of the year may be in different season.Part 3:Price asymmetric transmission anlysing between the production area and consumption area:based on different circulation structuresUsing Impulse Response Function(IRF)and variance decomposition(VD)by constructing vector error correction model(VEC),as well as asymmetric price transmission vector error correction model(APT-ECM),we empirically analyzes the price transmission between vegetable production areas and vegetables consumption areas,the results as follow:In January to June and October to December of every year,Some cold-resistant and easy to culticate vegetables such as cabbage,celery,chinese cabbage,produce decentralized,centralized supply to extra-large and large cities.The price transmission mechanism show that the main consumption area leading the price transmission,and the main consumption area's price go up a lot with less increase in the production areas' price,while the main consumption area's price fall,the the production areas' price responds relatively more quickly and falls sharply.In the annual December to April of the following year,some thermophilic fruit-vegetables,such as Tomato,cucumber,green pepper and cowpea,produces in high concentration,decentralized supply to numerous cities.The price transmission mechanism show that the main production area leading the price transmission,and the production areas'price responds symmetrical to the the main consumption area's price rise and fall.Part4:Price asymmetric transmission anlysing between the wholesale market and retail market:based on different retail channelAs chinese cabbage,potatoes,and tomatoes in Beijing markets for example.Theoreticaly and empiricaly analyze the price asymmetric transmission between the wholesale market and retail market,the results are as follows:The wholesale market price hold the leadership in the price transmission between the wholesale market and retail market.Wet bazaars' prices response to wholesale prices is symmetrical;while supermarket prices response to wholesale prices is asymmetric.Supermarket prices reacts more fully or rapidly to an increase in wholesale prices than to a decrease,which means welfare loss to buyers.It may be because supermarket could use its ability to control prices,to earn more profits by blocking the the price decrease transmission from upstream to the downstream.Part5:Analysis of the United States,Japan and vegetables circulation structure and the experience inspirationOn production area layout,The USA and Japana use of the comparative advantages of each region to a certain exten,including seasonal,geographical location advantages.In the US A,the vegetable production and circulation are on a large scale,so they take orders way organize production,farmers wholesale market is the important link of origin,and the consuming wholesale market is small.The vegetable circulation structure in the Japan,wholesale market(Central wholesaler market and Local wholesaler market)in the city is the hub of its distribution channels.Small-scale farmers sale vegetables by Japan Agricultural Co-operatives,and the producing area market link was reduced.Auction System in wholesale market ensures the business dealing fairly.The wholesale market restrict the the number of wholesalers Strictly,which makes vertical link tightly and have Less linksThe governments' play a different role in the vegetables producing and circulation system between the USA and Japan.The U.S.government makes the market perfom effective by providing timely and effective information,and promote the product classification and so on.The Japanese government play a imortant role in Formation of Circulation System by mandatory introduction of legal and measures.The government in order to Coordinate vegetable supply and demand balance by making production plans.The government formulate policies to encourage Regional Agricultural Co-operatives produce According to the central government's plan... |
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