Study On Green And Low-carbon Development Of Energy In Chong Qing

With the development of economy, the issues of energy and environment have aroused wide concern. Internationally, focusing on climate change and exploring a low-carbon development road have become worldwide tendency. Domestically, in Denmark Copenhagen summit in December 2009, China promised to reduce carbon emissions by 40%~50% before 2020, setting a harder target than those developed countries in Europe and America. As for Chongqing, to achieve the development goal of reducing carbon emissions by 40% ~ 50% is also a severe challenge. Theoretically and practically, it has become an important problem to scientifically predict energy consumption in Chongqing, to optimize the consumption structure, and to explore the way of low-carbon development so as to promote the social and economic development in a sustained, rapid and sound manner.On account of the issues such as the balance of energy supply and demand, its major influence factors, energy structure optimization, low-carbon use, the thesis has established the goal of the research framework and index system for qualitative and quantitative analysis, and made scientific prediction of energy demand in Chongqing during the 13 th Five Year Plan, with the aid of data statistic analysis, gray system and neural network. It is based on the research results from home and abroad, while setting relevance between low-carbon development of energy in Chongqing and sustainable economic and social development as well as coordination degree analysis as the breakthrough point. What's more, based on the method of data envelopment analysis(DEA), this thesis has optimized and empirically tested the energy demand structure in Chongqing. With the consideration of the features of five functional regions in Chongqing and based on DEA quantitative evaluation, the thesis has put forward a strategy in low-carbon development, the clean usage, scientific innovation and energy management, which can serve as a decision support for government to develop green energy.Based on systematic research, the thesis has got the following main achievements:(1)Drawing on the existing research results from home and abroad, the thesis expounds the essence of the development of low-carbon energy. It means to achieve the optimal allocation of resources, reduce energy consumption, minimize emissions of greenhouse gases and pollutants and improve the efficiency of energy use, so as to achieve the goal of mitigating climate change, improving the quality of human lives, and promoting the sustainable development of human beings. It is under the premise of economic and social development and ecological protection. And it is realized through gross controlling, structure optimization, technical innovation and system improvement.(2)Through combing energy investment with the 22 closely related indexes, such as economic and social productions as well as environmental endurance capability, the thesis has established scientific analysis system. By using SPSS19 statistical analysis software, the thesis has successfully set up analysis system related to many factors including economy, population,“three wastes”emissions, coal mine accident, the urbanization rate, research and development of science and technology and patent achievements.The thesis found out the interdependent relationship between energy and many factors, providing scientific support for related policy decision.(3)Using the multiple-combined nonlinear regression model, the gray prediction(1, 1) model and the gray neural network model, the thesis has established a prediction model for various energy consumption in Chongqing. While at the same time, by using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP), the thesis has built a composite prediction and optimized the prediction model based on the optimization of the weight coefficient of those three kinds of prediction model. From the comparison between predicted value and actual value, the residual analysis and the average relative error analysis, we have found out that the prediction accuracy of composite prediction is obviously superior to the single prediction and has a better fitting degree, which may be well used in the prediction of energy demand in Chongqing during the 13 th Five Year Plan.(4)By using data envelopment analysis(DEA), the thesis has built the DEA analytic method and evaluation system of multi-input and multi-output of energy use in Chongqing. The thesis has made quantitative evaluation of energy input and output in Chongqing during the 30 years before 2014. With the access to energy redundancy into radial improving+relaxation values, the scale effect value, comprehensive technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency, strong and weak DEA efficient, DEA effective, DEA effective fully meet production frontier, increase efficiency of diminishing, the thesis has got the law of development of efficiency on energy input and output in Chongqing for the past 30 years. Meanwhile, the thesis has put forward energy demand structure equation, the possible criteria, the optimistic and pessimistic prediction scheme. Based on the DEA results of energy input and output, the thesis has carried out an in-depth empirical research on the optimization of energy consumption structure and explored an optimized plan for the low-carbon energy development in Chongqing.(5)The thesis has put forward the way of low-carbon development for energy consumption structure adjustment in Chongqing. To optimize energy consumption structure, it should start from lowering the proportion of coal and oil consumption, improving the proportion of the gas and electricity in production and living consumption, completing energy security system construction and improvement, vigorously promoting clean energy utilization, especially in clean coal technology(CCT), natural gas chemical technology and clean coal chemical technology, and improving the ability of preparation, capture and storage technology of CO2. Through mobilizing the enthusiasm in each respect, relying on the support of science and technology, carrying out in-depth research on the intensity of high carbon energy preparation technology, promoting energy-saving new technologies to improve energy efficiency, vigorously developing new energy(power battery, fuel cell) car research and development, Chongqing will find the optimal path for low carbon energy development to strengthen energy supply side structure reform and the optimized guidance for energy demand structure, so as to enjoy a better new energy consumption, to carry out a multi-level, multi-dimensional integration reform, to improve the mechanism for low carbon energy development policy regulation system innovation, to build a sound energy system in five functional regions, and to promote sustainable economic and social development in Chongqing.