Optimization Of China's Energy Consumption Structure Under Trend Of Low-carbon Transition

With the steady growth of the global economy,the world of coal,oil and other high energy consumption high,carbon dioxide emissions increased dramatically,leading to global climate warming,the "greenhouse effect" is increasing.Caused by a series of adverse environmental impacts and hazards have been a serious threat to human living environment and even life health.In this context,reducing carbon dioxide emissions and promoting low-carbon development has become the consensus of all countries in the process of global climate governance.Since 1978,especially since twenty-first Century,Chinese sustained rapid economic growth,industrialization and urbanization process is accelerating,a substantial increase in the total energy consumption by 1 billion 469 million 640 thousand tons of standard coal in 2000 increased to 4 billion 300 million tons of standard coal in 2015,the average annual growth of 7.42%.In addition China energy consumption of coal,oil and other high carbon energy,natural gas,power and other clean energy consumption accounted for less than 17%of total annual emissions of carbon dioxide,resulting in China continues to rise.Chinese overtook the United States as the world carbon dioxide emission country in 2007,2013 the amount of carbon dioxide emissions Chinese than the United States and the EU carbon dioxide emissions and carbon dioxide emissions accounted for nearly 30%of the world.At the same time,China total economic output in 2010 surpassed Japan to become the world's second largest economy,although the current trend of economic growth slowed,but the economic growth rate still maintain rapid growth in 2016,Chinese GDP growth rate was 6.7%,the total GDP reached $11 trillion,accounting for 14.84%of the total global GDP.At the same time,China is also facing the pressure of sustainable development,such as the depletion of domestic resources,environmental pollution,and the shaping of a new national competitive advantage.Under this background,this paper is based on the energy structure,first consider the transition to low carbon development characteristics,combined with the national policy of energy saving recently released,divided the baseline scenario and constrained scenarios,using partial least squares regression to predict the total energy demand,energy structure and carbon dioxide emissions regression;Secondly,considering the characteristics of the development of low carbon transformation,the coordinated development of economy,energy and environment into consideration,a multi-objective optimization model is constructed to adjust the energy structure,research in the period of 2016-2020,in the premise of China's economic growth to maintain rapid growth,optimize the structure of China's energy consumption exact effect on energy saving and emission reduction;Finally,considering the characteristics of the development of low carbon transformation,will improve production efficiency,reduce energy consumption and reduce carbon dioxide emissions as the three important tasks of government incentives of high carbon energy consumption enterprises the development of low carbon economy,Between the government and construction of high carbon energy consumption enterprises of the multi task principal-agent model,and analysis of high carbon energy consumption enterprises effort observability and degree of correlation between the tasks of the incentive mechanism design optimization,and puts forward relevant policy suggestions.