| The interactive relationship between transnational capital flows and industrial transfer has always been a hot issue in the field of international economics. As a type of capital output, OFDI can not only be treated as an effective means of outward industrial transfer by following the comparative advantage path, but also can be the important power in adjustment of domestic industrial division status and regional industrial distribution by influencing the industrial structure of home country. Since 1990s, China has gained remarkable economic growth by undertaking a large number of labor-intensive industry capital from developed countries and forming in the industrial structure of processing trade industry as the main body under the background of the fourth global industrial transfer tide. In recent years, the sustainable development of China's manufacturing industry has encountered a bottleneck due to the rising cost of labor and other factors, regional manufacturing development imbalance, and the rise of trade protectionism in the world. Using for reference the experience of developed countries foreign direct investment, China's "go global" strategy is picking up pace, which accelerating the output of traditional manufacturing industry chain and creating more possibilities to domestic new manufacturing industry development based on the whole tendency of domestic industrial level upgrade and the regional industry harmonious development. However, International and regional industrial transfer are rarely regarded as the inevitable outcome of OFDI in the classic theory of international direct investment The motives of the international and regional industrial transfer are also exclusive of OFDI under the condition of open economy in classical industrial transfer theory. Therefore, the study about industrial transfer effect of OFDI has great theoretic and realistic significance.The dissertation finds the most studies about the relationship between OFDI and industrial transfer lack of the unified framework, and many theoretical and practical issues still need to be discussed. Specifically, the studies about relationship between OFDI and outward industrial transfer tend to lack of the systemic argumentation of investment motivation and ignore the gradient feature of industrial location choice. Especially there is not study empirically estimating industrial hollowing-out problem caused by excessive industrial capital output. The studies about relationship between OFDI and undertaking international industrial transfer limited to superficial connection of the bidirectional capital flows, which are insufficient to explain the influence path of OFDI to undertake international industrial transfer. The studies about relationship between OFDI and inter-regional industrial transfer can't take the spatial linkage of the domestic regional industry investment into account and lack of the factual evidence. Besides, we mainly summarize and comment the theory development, and find that the international investment theory respectively explains the investment motivation and conditions of developed countries and developing countries. The industrial transfer theory mainly analyzes the reason and performance of international industrial transfer and inter-regional industrial transfer, there is a certain intersection between them. Based on the existing study and theoretical relation, in order to comprehensively study relationship between OFDI and industrial transfer, on the one hand, the dissertation interprets their relationship from the aspect of statistical data, on the other hand, the dissertation respectively discusses the occurrence mechanism of outward industrial transfer effect, industrial hollowing-out effect, undertaking international industrial transfer effect and domestic inter-regional industrial transfer effect of OFDI. And then we comprehensively apply transnational, provincial and urban panel data for empirical analysis.The dissertation systematically summarizes the status of China's OFDI, outward industrial transfer, undertaking international industrial transfer and inter-regional industrial transfer, revealing the characteristics of industry and location and current problems of China's OFDI and industrial transfer, which reflects their change rule and data connection. Then the dissertation takes manufacturing as an example, and respectively estimates the industrial transfer effect of OFDI from different perspectives.Firstly, using Heckman selection model, the dissertation estimates the motivation and trade structure effect of China's two types OFDI combined with a panel dataset covering 113 countries, where China had traded and invested during 2003 to 2013. We can judge the existence of international industrial transfer based on the perspective of trade structure. The results show that China's path-wise OFDI is resource-seeking, which purpose is to obtain abundant factors of production in developing countries and to reduce the production cost, China's inverse OFDI is technology-seeking, which purpose is to get advanced production technology in developed countries and to raise the level of output. China's path-wise OFDI will cause primary industries to developing countries, which can reduce its export and increase its imports, China's inverse OFDI will effectively enhance the level of domestic manufacturing, increase the export scale and promote intra-manufacturing trade with developed countries. After the financial crisis, China accelerated the pace of transfer in primary industry to developing countries and strengthened intra-manufacturing trade with developed countries.Secondly, using the system GMM method, the dissertation estimates the type and stage of China's manufacturing hollowing-out combined with China's provincial panel data from 2003 to 2013 based on the perspective of capital factor. The results show that the rapid expansion of manufacturing OFDI would cause reduction in China's manufacturing capital and rise in real interest, then manufacturing capital flows into the virtual economy and capital-labor falls, the phenomenon of off-manufacture of industrial China's capital would happen. Labor-intensive manufacturing is highly sensitive to change in the cost, capital would be squeezed more obviously by OFDI. Compared with the eastern region, manufacturing structure of mid-west region is single and elements are more intensive, OFDI will weaken manufacturing competitive edge of mid-west region by interest rate transmission mechanism, under the situation of insufficient development in emerging industries, off-manufacture of industrial capital is more prone to happen. After the financial crisis, China's manufacturing OFDI growth is accelerated due to need of capacity output, and the promotion effect on domestic manufacturing capital formation from the net inflow of capital is diminished.Thirdly, using the system GMM method, the dissertation estimates undertaking international manufacturing transfer effect induced by China's OFDI with different motivations combined with China's provincial panel data from 2003 to 2013 based on the perspective of structure transmission mechanism. The results show that China's OFDI has significant positive effects on undertaking international manufacturing transfer, and the structure transmission mechanism is the main reason for scale expansion of China's undertaking international manufacturing transfer. Benefiting from efficiency seeking, market seeking and technology sourcing OFDI, China significantly enhanced the strength of undertaking capital-intensive and technology-intensive manufacturing through the division position optimization, excess capacity output and reverse technology spillover. Compared with central and western regions, the eastern region is subject to resource bottleneck and rising wages, so undertaking international manufacturing transfer effect of resource seeking and efficiency seeking OFDI is more obvious. Compared with western region, the eastern and central regions have stronger absorption capacity, so undertaking international manufacturing transfer effect of technology sourcing OFDI is more obvious.Finally, using the system GMM method, this dissertation estimates the manufacturing inter-regional industrial transfer effect induced by China's OFDI with different motivations combined with China's urban panel data from 2003 to 2012 based on the perspective of home market effect. The results show that OFDI of eastern cities has significant positive effects on the manufacturing scale of central and western cities. Affected by the efficiency-seeking OFDI, expansion type transfer from northeast cities, northern coastal cities and eastern cities to central and western cities is more obvious, while affected by the technology sourcing OFDI and market-seeking OFDI, recession type transfer from northern coastal cities and eastern cities to central and western cities is more obvious. Further analyses reveal that eastern cities enhanced the technology sourcing OFDI and expanded the scale of transfer in traditional manufacturing industry to central and western cities after financial crisis. Manufacturing transfer from eastern cities to capital cities and to non-capital is also different.The principal innovations of this dissertation are as follows:Firstly, This dissertation constructs unified framework of mechanisms to analyze the influence of OFDI on outward industrial transfer, undertaking international industrial transfer and inter-regional industrial transfer. Secondly, combining the difference in China's OFDI motivation and host country endowment, this dissertation gives a clear definition of path-wise and inverse OFDI, and tests the transmission effect of OFDI on the import and export trade structure of China's primary industries and manufacturing by using transnational panel data, witch can futher provide more accurate evidences to determine whether there is foreign industrial transfer and what the transfer characteristics are. Thirdly, based on the strict definition of manufacturing hollowing-out type, this dissertation attempts to introduce the capital factor into Romer's multi-sector model, and deduces the impact of OFDI on China's manufacturing capital labor ratio through the actual interest rate effect of capital account, and test the manufacturing hollowing-out reality and the area and industry differences by using the provincial panel data. Fourth, by expanding the surface relation between OFDI and FDI, the transmission path that OFDI can promote the dynamic conversion of domestic comparative advantage in manufacturing development, and then determine the scale and structural characteristics of FDI may exist. This dissertation mainly adds the interaction terms of OFDI and motivation factors into empirical model, and judges the impact of China's OFDI with different motivations on undertaking international manufacturing transfer and the area and industry differences by using the provincial panel data. Finally, according to the regional imbalance background that agglomeration in the eastern part and weak in the middle and western parts of China's OFDI, the complex impact of OFDI in the eastern region on its manufacturing international and regional market size can regard as the mechanism that manufacturing routes from east to west in China. Similarly, this dissertation builds an empirical model of mid-west manufacturing scale including OFDI, motivations and their interaction terms of eastern region based on the distance deflator, and tests correspondingly by using urban panel data.The present research at industrial transfer effect of OFDI is not enough to go into a system. The study of the relationship between OFDI and industrial transfer is still relatively scarce and the research methods need to be further explored. This dissertation attempts to analysis with a view to promoting the research on China's OFDI and industrial transfer. Of course, due to the lack of enterprise level's data and industry level's data, it's difficult to take empirical analysis on the micro mechanism of enterprise behavior. At the same time, this dissertation don't provide measure method of industrial transfer indicators and discuss the rule of industrial sectors transfer, which becomes a shortcoming of this study and direction we make further efforts. |
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